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首页> 外文会议>Conference on remote sensing and modeling of ecosystems for sustainability >Land-use and land-cover sceneries in China: an application of Dinamica EGO model
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Land-use and land-cover sceneries in China: an application of Dinamica EGO model

机译：中国土地利用和土地覆盖风景：Dinamica Ego模型的应用

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Land is an indispensable natural resource for human, without which we cannot survive and develop. Land-usechange, influenced by both natural environment and human activity, has a close relationship with food security, resourceutilization, biodiversity and climate change. In order to understand the process and driving mechanism of land-usechange, dynamic models were developed in these years, among which Dinamica EGO is a practical one and has beenwidely used in the world. In this paper, we aim to use Dinamica EGO to simulate the land-use of China in 2005 with dataextracted from SPOT VGT NDVI. The real land-use map was compared with the simulation result so as to verify thefeasibility of Dinamica EGO. Then we supposed three sceneries under which we could analyze the land-use change ofChina in 2020. Results indicated that: on the basis of no extreme natural disasters or exceptional policy fluctuation, thegrassland area would reduce by 22.21 million hectares averagely. However forest would increase by 19.81 billionhectares on average. Water and unused land would probably remain stable as there was little change in three sceneries.Farmland areas showed a good agreement under these sceneries whereas the greatest difference in land-use areaestimations lies in built-up with an uncertainty accounting for 1.67%.© (2012) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.
机译：土地是人类不可或缺的自然资源，无论我们都无法生存和发展。受自然环境和人类活动影响的土地Usechange与粮食安全，资源化，生物多样性和气候变化具有密切的关系。为了了解土地Usechange的过程和驱动机制，这些年来开发了动态模型，其中Dinamica Ego是一个实用的，并且已经在世界上使用。在本文中，我们的目标是使用Dinamica EGO在2005年模拟中国的土地利用，并从现场VGT NDVI数据提示。与仿真结果进行比较真实的土地使用地图，以验证Dinamica Ego的可行性。然后我们认为，我们可以在2020年分析三个景象。结果表明：在没有极端的自然灾害或特殊的政策波动的基础上，希腊地区平均降低了22.21百万公顷。然而，森林平均将增加19.81亿欧洲。水和未使用的土地可能保持稳定，因为三个场景几乎没有变化。在这些风景下，芬兰地区表现出了良好的一致性，而土地使用的大面积差异差异化在建立的情况下，不确定性占占1.67％的内容。©（ 2012年）版权协会照片光学仪表工程师（SPIE）。仅供个人使用的摘要下载。

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