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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Hydroinformatics >DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION STRATEGY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED STORM SURGE HAZARD AND COASTAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SRI LANKA
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DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION STRATEGY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED STORM SURGE HAZARD AND COASTAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SRI LANKA

机译：斯里兰卡热带气旋诱发的风暴潮危害和气候变化的沿海影响的灾害风险评估和缓解策略

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Coastal flooding due to tropical cyclone induced storm surges has caused considerable damage and loss of life in the North Indian Ocean region including in Sri Lanka. Moreover, climate change impacts are likely to exacerbate the impacts of such coastal hazards on existing and future coastal communities and development. Whilst some impacts such as possible sea level rise are gradual and occur over a long time-frame, extreme weather events can occur at any time and can have a significant impact on the coastline. Accordingly, this paper is concerned with an assessment of the risk of the storm surge hazard to the vulnerable communities of Sri Lanka, particularly in view of the coastal impacts of climate change. The storm surge hazard assessment utilizes a database of historical events of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region. A statistical analysis of the past events has been carried out to identify storm surge scenarios with appropriate recurrence intervals representing medium-, and long-term timescales. A numerical model comprising a parametric cyclone model and a hydrodynamic model based on shallow water equations have been employed to simulate cyclone wind velocity and pressure fields as well as coastal inundation due to the storm surges corresponding to each scenario in the city of Chilaw on the west coast of Sri Lanka, as a pilot study. An appropriate mitigation strategy for the storm surge hazard based on the aforementioned risk analysis is also outlined. The risk assessment and mitigation strategy described in the paper will be useful in the formulation of disaster management policies, development of preparedness plans, allocation of resources for disaster risk reduction, and in education and awareness activities in regard to the tropical cyclone induced storm surge hazard in Sri Lanka.
机译：由热带气旋引起的风暴潮造成的沿海洪水在包括印度在内的北印度洋地区造成了相当大的破坏和生命损失。此外，气候变化的影响可能加剧这种沿海灾害对现有和未来沿海社区及发展的影响。尽管某些影响（例如可能的海平面上升）是逐渐发生的，并且会持续很长时间，但极端天气事件可能随时发生，并且可能会对海岸线产生重大影响。因此，本文关注对风暴潮危害斯里兰卡脆弱社区的风险的评估，特别是考虑到气候变化对沿海地区的影响。风暴潮危害评估利用了北印度洋地区热带气旋历史事件的数据库。已经对过去的事件进行了统计分析，以识别风暴潮的情况，并以适当的重复间隔表示中长期的时间尺度。数值模型由参数化气旋模型和基于浅水方程的流体力学模型组成，用于模拟西部奇拉瓦市因每种情景而引起的风暴潮造成的旋风风速和压力场以及沿海淹没斯里兰卡海岸，作为一项试点研究。还概述了基于上述风险分析的风暴潮危害的适当缓解策略。本文所述的风险评估和缓解策略将对制定灾害管理政策，制定防灾计划，分配用于减少灾害风险的资源以及有关热带气旋引发的风暴潮危害的教育和宣传活动很有用。在斯里兰卡。

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