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A comparison in the accuracy of mapping nuclear fallout patterns using delfic and several modified models based on delfic

机译:比较使用delfic和几种基于delfic的修正模型绘制核沉降模式的准确性

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There are several codes or software used to predict the distribution of fallout after nuclear explosion, such as Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC), Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) and Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC). For the purpose of predicting on-site dose contours, DELFIC has better performance for its computation starts in an earlier time after explosion. Five nuclear fallout prediction codes are studied to determine which code predicts the most accurate fallout dose-rate contours with low computation time. These codes consist of DELFIC and several modified models based on DELFIC, such as Diffusive Transport Module modified with wafer thrower, Cloud Rise Module modified with Hill vortex model and Diffusive Transport Module modified to explain effect of 2-D stabilized cloud. These codes were compared with the Defense Nuclear Agency's (DNA) DNA 1251-1-EX, Compilation of Local Fallout Data from Test Detonations 1945-1962 Extracted from DASA 1251, using NAD method. In the comparing of small boy test, it appears that there are few differences between different codes. Efforts will be made to find which model predicts less false negative or less false positive and the reasons of these faults will be studied.
机译:有多种代码或软件可用于预测核爆炸后的尘埃分布,例如危害预测和评估能力(HPAC),混合单颗粒拉格朗日综合轨迹(HYSPLIT)和国防用地尘释义代码(DELFIC)。为了预测现场剂量轮廓,DELFIC具有更好的性能,因为其计算是在爆炸后的较早时间开始的。研究了五个核尘沉降预测代码,以确定哪个代码可以在最短的计算时间内预测出最准确的尘埃剂量率轮廓。这些代码包括DELFIC和几个基于DELFIC的修改模型,例如,用晶圆抛掷器修改的扩散传输模块,修改了Hill涡模型的升云模块和修改以解释二维稳定云效果的扩散传输模块。这些代码与国防核局(DNA)DNA 1251-1-EX,使用NAD方法从DASA 1251中提取的1945-1962年试验爆炸的局部辐射数据汇编进行了比较。在比较小男孩测试时,似乎不同代码之间几乎没有差异。将努力寻找哪个模型预测较少的假阴性或较少的假阳性,并将研究这些故障的原因。

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