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Modeling and Predicting the Growth and Death of Membership-based Websites

机译：建模和预测基于成员资格的网站的增长和消亡

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摘要

Driven by outstanding success stories of Internet startups such as Facebook and The Huffington Post, recent studies have thoroughly described their growth. These highly visible online success stories, however, overshadow an untold number of similar ventures that fail. The study of website popularity is ultimately incomplete without general mechanisms that can describe both successes and failures. In this work we present six years of the daily number of users (DAU) of twenty-two membership-based websites - encompassing online social networks, grassroots movements, online forums, and membership-only Internet stores - well balanced between successes and failures. We then propose a combination of reaction-diffusion-decay processes whose resulting equations seem not only to describe well the observed DAU time series but also provide means to roughly predict their evolution. This model allows an approximate automatic DAU-based classification of websites into self-sustainable v.s. unsustainable and whether the startup growth is mostly driven by marketing & media campaigns or word-of-mouth adoptions.
机译：在诸如Facebook和《赫芬顿邮报》等互联网初创企业的杰出成功故事的推动下，最近的研究充分描述了它们的成长。但是，这些引人注目的在线成功案例使无数失败的类似企业蒙上了阴影。如果没有可以描述成功与失败的通用机制，对网站受欢迎程度的研究最终将是不完整的。在这项工作中，我们介绍了22个基于会员的网站的每日用户（DAU）的六年（包括在线社交网络，基层运动，在线论坛和仅限会员的Internet商店），在成功与失败之间取得了很好的平衡。然后，我们提出了反应-扩散-衰减过程的组合，其结果方程似乎不仅很好地描述了观测到的DAU时间序列，而且还提供了粗略预测其演化的方法。该模型可以将基于DAU的网站大致自动分类为自我可持续的目标。难以持续，以及创业公司的增长主要是由营销和媒体宣传还是口碑传播所推动。

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