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HRA for detection and suppression activities in response to fire events

机译：HRA用于响应火灾事件进行侦查和扑救

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This study consisted of a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of fire detection and suppression capabilities in a facility by the standard operating crew. This evaluation was made using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) quantification techniques, which resulted in a set of human error probabilities (HEPs) characterizing the detection and suppression actions. The HEPs were input to a comprehensive event tree model that integrated the different detection and suppression activities into sequences of events (i.e., fire scenario outcomes) that were also probabilistically quantified. Based on the study findings, the following conclusions were made: 1. The overall method proved to have significant merit for conducting an initial scoping evaluation of fire detection and suppression probability by crew members, including automatic detection and facility modification influences. 2. The majority of the HEPs were constant (i.e., did not change) for different system window values. However, for relatively short system windows, key “manual” detection and suppression activities may fail. These insights suggested areas of the facility where fire protection improvements could be beneficial. 3. Better characterization of the timing associated with human actions is necessary. Historical data should be investigated to re-assess the timing and support the probability distributions and corresponding parameters selected for representing the time values. 4. Better characterization of the fires. The analysis preliminarily considered “slow” and “fast” growing fires. However, no explicit treatment was given to small fires that are easy to suppress or larger fires that may not be easily suppress. Further characterization of the probability of fires that can overcome the available suppression capabilities should be incorporated into the analysis. 5. Better characterization of system window times. A combination of historical data and detailed fi- e modeling analysis of selected fire scenarios should be applied since overall system window times were assumed and not based on an analytical characterization of specific fire scenarios. 6. There was an inherent assumption that the fire could be suppressed by the crew given the training and equipment available. Further analysis should be done to address fires with the capability of growth and propagation that can overcome the available suppression capabilities.
机译：这项研究包括由标准操作人员对设施中的火灾探测和扑救能力进行定性和定量评估。该评估是使用人类可靠性分析（HRA）量化技术进行的，该技术导致了一组表征检测和抑制行为的人为错误概率（HEP）。 HEP被输入到一个综合的事件树模型中，该模型将不同的检测和抑制活动集成到事件序列（即火灾场景结果）中，这些事件序列也可以通过概率进行量化。根据研究结果，得出以下结论：1.总体方法证明对船员进行火情探测和扑灭可能性的初步范围评估（包括自动探测和设施变更影响）具有重大价值。 2.对于不同的系统窗口值，大多数HEP是恒定的（即，没有变化）。但是，对于较短的系统窗口，关键的“手动”检测和抑制活动可能会失败。这些见解提出了设施的哪些领域可以改进消防措施。 3.必须更好地描述与人类行为有关的时间安排。应调查历史数据以重新评估时间并支持概率分布和选择的代表时间值的相应参数。 4.更好地描述火势。该分析初步考虑了“缓慢”和“快速”增长的火灾。但是，未对易于抑制的小火或可能难以抑制的大火没有明确的处理。可以克服现有抑制能力的火灾可能性的进一步表征应纳入分析中。 5.更好地表征系统窗口时间。由于假定了整个系统的窗口时间，而不是基于特定火灾场景的分析特征，因此应结合使用历史数据和选定火灾场景的详细财务模型分析。 6.有一个固有的假设，即只要有可用的培训和设备，机组人员就可以扑灭大火。应该进行进一步的分析，以解决具有克服现有灭火能力的生长和繁殖能力的火灾。

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