This paper proposes a load forecasting procedure for the autonomous Electric Power system of Crete using the Box - Jenkins method for time series. The implemented S.AR.I.MA (0,1,2)×(0,1,1)_48 model is the one that generally expresses the database of the Cretan EPS (Electrical Power System). Our innovation is the algorithm of estimation where we use an iterative method to estimate the θ's parameters of the model by minimizing the sum of squares. As a result we present some results of forecasts for some ordinary days.
展开▼
