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Framework Development of Shipping Market Early-warning System by Using Prosperity Index: A Case Study of Shanghai Dry Bulk Shipping Market

机译：基于景气指数的航运市场预警系统框架开发-以上海干散货市场为例

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The shipping market is always in volatility according to complex impact factors. In order to better evaluate the conditions of the shipping market and to make proper market early warning (EW), the authors consider the volume, value level and other factors of shipping industry, simulates the structure Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and establishes the index system of shipping prosperity, applies the time difference correlation analysis and cluster analysis. Then, these indicators are classified into three categories of the leading, coincident and lagging indicators. In terms of theory of the economic cycle, diffusion indices and composite indices of global shipping prosperity are presented by using the method of factor analysis, which predicts composite indices and market situation with the prosperity index curve and signals, and collects the statistics of Shanghai and global maritime economy in recent three years as a case study. The very case illustrates Shanghai dry bulk shipping prosperity indices and the results, and comprehensively assesses the dynamic process of the global industry prosperity. The early warning methods could be introduced to solve shipping market monitoring problems. This study aims at developing an early warning system for shipping market and evaluating its performance. This system can provide early indications of market crisis by using the prosperity index and evaluate its performance.
机译：根据复杂的影响因素，航运市场始终处于波动之中。为了更好的评估 航运市场的状况，并做出适当的市场早期预警（EW），作者认为 航运业的数量，价值水平和其他因素，模拟结构层次分析法 （AHP）建立航运繁荣指标体系，应用时差相关分析 和聚类分析。然后，将这些指标分为领先，同步和同步三类。 滞后指标。从经济周期理论看，全球的扩散指数和综合指数 运用因子分析的方法来预测运输业的繁荣，该方法可以预测综合指数和 用繁荣指数曲线和信号反映市场情况，并收集上海和全球的统计数据 以近三年的海洋经济为例。这个案例说明了上海干散货运输 繁荣指数和结果，并全面评估全球行业的动态过程 繁荣。可以采用预警方法来解决航运市场监控问题。这 该研究旨在开发针对航运市场的预警系统并评估其性能。这 该系统可以通过使用繁荣指数并评估其绩效来提供市场危机的早期迹象。

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