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首页> 外文会议>International conference on transportation engineering >Reliability Prediction Method of an EMU Bogie
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Reliability Prediction Method of an EMU Bogie

机译：动车组转向架的可靠性预测方法

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摘要

One reliability prediction method of combining evidence theory interval fusion with Pignistic probability transformation is proposed based on the existing failure rate of similar products. According to the Pignistic probability transformation, the evaluation results of weight evaluated by experts and its confidence lever are converted into gambling probability function. Using evidence theory interval fusion technology conducts synthesis calculation. Interval point estimates are calculated by inverse operation of Pignistic probability transformation and normalized. The weight values of subsystems are obtained and the results of reliability prediction are known. The proposed method is applied on EMU bogie to conduct reliability prediction. The case indicates that the proposed method both considerate the existing failure rates of similar products and combined the evaluation of experts to the subsystems. The reliability prediction results show that this method is more objective.
机译：提出了一种基于证据相似度区间融合与小概率概率变换相结合的可靠性预测方法。根据Pignistic概率变换，将专家评估的权重评估结果及其置信度转换为赌博概率函数。利用证据理论，区间融合技术进行综合计算。间隔点估计值是通过Pignistic概率变换的逆运算来计算并归一化的。获得子系统的权重值，并获得可靠性预测的结果。该方法在动车组转向架上进行了可靠性预测。案例表明，该方法既考虑了同类产品的现有故障率，又将专家评估与子系统结合起来。可靠性预测结果表明，该方法更加客观。

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