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Uncertainty, elicitation of experts' opinion, and human failures: Challenges for RAM analysis of ERTMS SoS

机译：不确定性，引起专家意见和人为失误：ERTMS SoS的RAM分析面临的挑战

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摘要

This paper has three main objectives. The first objective is to summarize the requirements for RAM (Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability) parameters of European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) defined in the railway standards. The second objective is to emphasize that the RAM requirements should be considered at the ERTMS SoS level. The third objective is to highlight major issues, when dealing with ERTMS SoS, which are not treated or clearly defined in the railway standards. Indeed, the RAM parameters definitions do not take into account all types of uncertainty in failure data and human failures, and do not propose specific methods to obtain failure data from experts' opinion. In this work, a number of methods have been proposed to deal with these issues.
机译：本文有三个主要目标。第一个目标是总结在铁路标准中定义的欧洲铁路交通管理系统（ERTM）的RAM（可靠性，可用性和可维护性）参数的要求。第二个目的是强调应在ERTMS SOS级别考虑RAM要求。第三个目标是在处理不在铁路标准中不受处理或明确定义的ERTMS SOS时突出主要问题。实际上，RAM参数定义不考虑所有类型的失败数据和人类失败的不确定性，并且不提出从专家意见获得失败数据的具体方法。在这项工作中，已经提出了许多方法来处理这些问题。

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