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首页> 外文会议>AIAA aviation technology, integration and operations conference >Airfare Determinants on the Kangaroo Route (Australia-UK Market): A Case Study of the Influences of Airlines, Alliances and Airports
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Airfare Determinants on the Kangaroo Route (Australia-UK Market): A Case Study of the Influences of Airlines, Alliances and Airports

机译：袋鼠航线（澳英市场）上的机票决定因素：以航空公司，联盟和机场的影响为例

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This paper firstly explored the theoretical determinants on the international routes. An extensive literature review was outlined in the Section Ⅱ, but most of them were focused on the transatlantic market or the EU market. Finding the gap in the airfares determinants on the Australia-UK route, this research targeted at the influences of airlines, alliances and airports, adopting general discussions in the literature review as the guide and indicators for the following analysis and model specification. Qantas' pricing power in both premium and economy classes has been captured in descriptive analysis, so does the pricing impact of Singapore Airlines in the premium class. Unlike other airlines, British Airways (BA) benefited from stable number of premium passengers, which led to relatively high average airfares from 2008 to 2010. As a six-freedom carrier, Emirates boosted its passengers and market share with extremely low fare level. However, only the home carrier advantages of Qantas and BA have been identified in the regression model, with 13% and 14% coefficients, respectively. Although conventional wisdom only found home carrier advantages in the origin airport, BA's advantages could generate from the strategic partnership with Qantas. In addition, the higher fare level of Qantas and BA also indicate their higher operating costs. In the descriptive analysis, the limitation of observations has been noticed. Hence, the effects of alliances targeted at the impacts of oneworld, Star and "Other" (airlines outside the alliances) on the online through ticket. With fares of all the cabin class in this model, the result primarily diagnosed 58% higher fares in premium class than economy ones. After that, oneworld's influence has been identified with a 12% coefficient. Since Qantas left a deep impression on the oneworld average fares, oneworld effects on the airfares seem to be controversial. Nonetheless, it can be adjusted with the stage of the airline alliances and airlines' updating revenue management systems. Last but not the least, facing the declining market share, oneworld members need the price mark up for improved services. In this model, Star alliances, on the other hand, do not appear to have any significant impact on the online through-ticket fares for airlines. The trend of airfares in the premium class via different connecting airports was the same during three years. HKG and SIN were the highest ones, followed by DXB and KUL. Nonetheless, the fluctuations in the economy class were more considerable, with a bridging gap among all the connecting airports. Although no significant results have been found in the premium class model and the one for all classes, the negative influences of DXB and KUL have been confirmed in the econometric analysis for the economy fares. This could be because of the strategic position of the airline in that airport. For instance, DXB charges nothing for all the flights of Emirates only. Although other airlines can benefit from KUL's friendly airport charges and the 50% discount in landing charge, only Malaysia Airlines flew via KUL on the Kangaroo Route. Hence, the lower cost in those two airports tends to have negative effects on the airfares. Paper Originality and Contributions to Knowledge The major originality of this paper was the utilisation of the econometric analysis of panel data to identify the airfare determinants on the Australia-UK route. Random Effects regression models are more accurate and reliable than those predicted by regular multiple regressions. The specified Random Effects models are the first among its kind to address specifically the fare determinants issues on the Kangaroo Route. In addition to the RE model, this paper also serves as an exploratory study into the connecting airports' influences on the international airfares, which has not yet been discussed in detail in the literature. In this research, industrial cases were provided as indicators, followed by detailed analysis on the influences of connecting airports. This appears as a crucial point to differentiate this paper from the existing literature. Last but not least, this research presents the key findings on the effects of airlines, alliances and airports on the airfares, more specifically on the Australia-UK route. Research Limitations and Future Research Direction Any econometric regression requires a long data collecting and formatting process. Throughout the study, a large amount of MIDT data and OAG data has been filtered and inputted into the comparative analysis and the econometric model. Creating the dataset had indeed implied the formatting of a large amount of data. Therefore, some potential human errors might be due to the manual data manipulation. But the data used for the dataset was crosschecked several times during the modelling process, in order to minimize the possibility of error. Obtained only three years' MIDT data, some of the variables this research primarily focused on were time-invariant, which means only Random Effects model could be adopted in this model. On that point, this issue could be tackled by future research including dataset for a longer period. Last but not least, the conclusions of this paper might be altered by the continuously changing air transport industry. The findings are actually based on passenger data from 2008 to 2010. The best example of this issue is the case of Malaysia Airlines, Qatar and Emirates. Throughout this study, Malaysia Airlines has been regarded as a member of the oneworld, and Emirates started to operate with Qantas, while Qatar is to join oneworld in the 2014. This is still correct at the time the paper is carried out. However, the new cooperation between Emirates and Qantas, together with Qatar joining oneworld, would imply dramatic changes for the considered market on the Australia-UK market, especially in terms of competitive pressure. Therefore, it would appear as very interesting to conduct a similar analysis in two or three years time in order to outline the new influence of fares, level of service and frequency on the Kangaroo Route.
机译：本文首先探讨了国际路线的理论决定因素。第二节概述了广泛的文献综述，但其中大多数集中在跨大西洋市场或欧盟市场上。为了找出澳大利亚至英国航线上票价决定因素的差距，本研究针对航空公司，联盟和机场的影响，采用文献综述中的一般性讨论作为以下分析和模型规格的指南和指标。在描述性分析中，澳航在高级舱和经济舱中的定价能力都得到了体现，新航在高级舱中的定价影响也得到了体现。与其他航空公司不同，英国航空（BA）受益于稳定数量的高级旅客，这导致2008年至2010年的平均机票价格较高。作为六自由度航空公司，阿联酋航空以极低的票价水平提升了其乘客和市场份额。但是，在回归模型中仅确定了澳航和BA的本土运营商优势，系数分别为13％和14％。尽管传统知识仅在始发机场发现了家庭承运人的优势，但英航的优势可能来自与澳航的战略合作伙伴关系。此外，澳航和英航的票价较高也表明其运营成本较高。在描述性分析中，注意到了观察的局限性。因此，联盟的影响是针对在线通票上的oneworld，Star和“其他”（联盟以外的航空公司）的影响。使用此模型中所有机舱舱位的票价，该结果主要是诊断出豪华舱票价比经济舱票价高58％。之后，以12％的系数确定了oneworld的影响力。由于澳航对“寰宇一家”的平均票价留下了深刻的印象，“寰宇一家”对机票的影响似乎是有争议的。但是，可以根据航空公司联盟的阶段和航空公司更新的收入管理系统进行调整。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，面对不断下降的市场份额，oneworld会员需要为提高服务质量而加价。另一方面，在这种模式下，星空联盟似乎不会对航空公司的在线直通车票价产生任何重大影响。在三年中，通过不同的转机机场的高级机票价格趋势是相同的。 HKG和SIN是最高的，其次是DXB和KUL。尽管如此，经济舱的波动更大，所有连接机场之间的桥梁都弥合。尽管在高级舱位模型和所有舱位的模型中均未发现明显的结果，但在经济舱票价的经济计量分析中已确认了DXB和KUL的负面影响。这可能是由于航空公司在该机场的战略地位。例如，DXB仅对阿联酋航空的所有航班不收取任何费用。尽管其他航空公司可以从KUL友好的机场费用和50％的着陆费折扣中受益，但只有马来西亚航空公司通过KUL乘坐袋鼠航线飞行。因此，这两个机场的较低成本往往会对机票价格产生负面影响。论文的独创性和对知识的贡献本文的主要独创性是利用面板数据的计量经济学分析来确定澳大利亚-英国航线上的机票决定因素。随机效应回归模型比常规多元回归预测的模型更为准确和可靠。指定的随机效应模型是此类模型中第一个专门解决袋鼠路线票价决定因素的模型。除可再生能源模型外，本文还作为探索性研究，探讨了转机机场对国际机票的影响，但文献中尚未对此进行详细讨论。在这项研究中，以工业案例为指标，然后对转机机场的影响进行详细分析。这似乎是将本文与现有文献区分开来的关键点。最后但并非最不重要的是，这项研究提出了有关航空公司，联盟和机场对机票价格（尤其是对澳大利亚至英国航线）影响的关键发现。研究局限性和未来研究方向任何计量经济学回归都需要漫长的数据收集和格式化过程。在整个研究过程中，大量的MIDT数据和OAG数据已被过滤并输入到比较分析和计量经济模型中。创建数据集确实暗示了格式化大量数据。因此，某些潜在的人为错误可能是由于手动数据操作引起的。但是，在建模过程中，多次对用于数据集的数据进行了交叉检查，以最大程度地减少出错的可能性。仅获得三年的MIDT数据，这项研究主要关注的一些变量是时间不变的，这意味着该模型只能采用随机效应模型。在这一点上，可以通过包括数据集在内的未来研究来解决这个问题。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，航空运输行业的不断变化可能会改变本文的结论。调查结果实际上是基于2008年至2010年的乘客数据。该问题的最好例证是马来西亚航空公司，卡塔尔和阿联酋航空。在整个研究过程中，马来西亚航空一直被视为oneworld的成员，阿联酋航空开始与澳航合作，而卡塔尔将在2014年加入oneworld。在撰写本文时，这仍然是正确的。但是，阿联酋航空和澳航之间的新合作，以及卡塔尔加入oneworld，将意味着澳大利亚-英国市场上考虑的市场发生巨大变化，特别是在竞争压力方面。因此，在两三年内进行类似的分析以概述票价，服务水平和班次对袋鼠路线的新影响似乎很有趣。

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