• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology >RELIABILITY ENHANCEMENT OF SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF NPP AS RISK MANAGEMENT FUNDAMENTALS PART II: QUANTIFYING EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY IN FRAGILITY ASSESSMENT USING EXPERT OPINIONS
【24h】

RELIABILITY ENHANCEMENT OF SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF NPP AS RISK MANAGEMENT FUNDAMENTALS PART II: QUANTIFYING EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY IN FRAGILITY ASSESSMENT USING EXPERT OPINIONS

机译：作为风险管理基础的NPP地震风险评估的可靠性增强第二部分：使用专家意见量化脆弱性评估中​​的表象不确定性

获取原文
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The assessment of seismic safety of nuclear power plant facilities has been performed by identifying and quantifying uncertainties in seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA). The level 1 PRA consists of three steps to assess an annual core damage frequency (CDF); seismic hazard evaluation, fragility evaluation of buildings and equipment, and system analyses. For the evaluation process, all uncertainties are classified into either aleatory or epistemic uncertainty for their quantification. Upon these evaluation, the uncertainties are generally quantified based on statistical data, uncertainty analyses, engineering judgment and experience. Especially the epistemic uncertainty is difficult to quantify, and it often and perhaps only relies on expert judgment in earthquake engineering. Therefore, in this study, systematic evaluation of the epistemic uncertainty on the seismic fragility of structures and equipment is studied and implemented for a model NPP. There are two expert groups formed in this project: experts in the field of buildings and soil ground (CE experts) and experts in the field of pipe and equipment (ME experts). Each group conducted a pilot study on the use of expert opinion elicitation assisted by technical integrators for uncertainty evaluation in fragility analyses. Along with ample results from relevant sensitivity analyses conducted, elicited opinions are carefully treated and classified into several specific areas and integrated into the form of knowledge tree technique (KTT), all of which can be utilized for future fragility estimation.
机译：核电厂设施的地震安全性评估是通过识别和量化地震概率风险评估（SPRA）中的不确定性来进行的。 1级PRA包括三个步骤，用于评估年度核心损坏频率（CDF）;地震灾害评估，建筑物和设备的易损性评估以及系统分析。在评估过程中，将所有不确定性分为量化的不确定性或认知不确定性。在进行这些评估后，通常会根据统计数据，不确定性分析，工程判断和经验对不确定性进行量化。尤其是，不确定性很难量化，并且通常并且可能仅依赖于地震工程学中的专家判断。因此，在这项研究中，对于模型NPP，研究并实现了对结构和设备的地震易损性的认识不确定性的系统评估。该项目有两个专家组：建筑物和土壤领域的专家（CE专家）和管道和设备领域的专家（ME专家）。每个小组都进行了一项关于使用专家意见征询的试点研究，这些意见是在技术集成商的协助下用于脆弱性分析的不确定性评估的。除了进行相关敏感性分析的大量结果外，还仔细处理了引出的意见并将其分类为几个特定区域，并整合到了知识树技术（KTT）的形式中，所有这些都可用于将来的易损性评估。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号