• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>IAEE international conference;International Association for Energy Economics >FORECASTING OF Tunisia: Interconnecting with Italy to achieve security of supply and climate change objectives
【24h】

FORECASTING OF Tunisia: Interconnecting with Italy to achieve security of supply and climate change objectives

机译：突尼斯的预测：与意大利互动以实现供应安全和气候变化目标

获取原文
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Tunisia is recovering from the Arab Spring, resulting in strong growth in electricity demand (5% per year on average for annual electricity consumption, 11% for peak demand). However little new power generating capacity has been commissioned in the last 4 years, and risk of shortages are now looming.This strong growth in electricity demand is translating into additional reliance on imports and on hydrocarbons. The Tunisian energy system is extremely dependent on hydrocarbons, with oil and gas meeting 99% of energy demand (45% for oil, 55% for natural gas). Power generation is nearly entirely based on natural gas (98%), with renewable energy (RE) having only a very small contribution. This heavy reliance on oil and gas developed at a time when sizeable reserves were discovered in Tunisia and production was sufficient to meet national needs. However, discoveries have not kept up with growing demand and Tunisia became a net energy importer in 2000. Net imports now amount to 3.5 mtoe, or 38% of primary energy demand. Current gas supply sources (national production and Algerian gas, either through transit royalties of contracts) will not be sufficient to cover demand beyond 2020 at best.Diversifying the energy mix and energy supply sources has always been a priority in Tunisia, but with little tangible results so far. Reducing energy demand growth is also a priority, and Tunisia is a pioneer in the developing world in developing and implementing ambitious energy efficiency policies . However, this has not been sufficient to prevent a growing import dependency. In 2013, Tunisia launched a national debate on the energy transition. The key elements of the energy strategy are:1.Development of national energy resources and infrastructure2.Reinforcement of energy efficiency programmes3.Diversification of the energy mix through RE development4.Development/reinforcement of interconnections with Maghreb countries and Europe5.Reorganisation and institutional reforms6.Reinforcement of cooperation with Maghreb and other countries7.Better governance of energy strategy and decisions, and launch of national energy debate on transition.Moreover, Tunisia has included climate change in its new constitution approved in January 2014, being only the third country in the world to embed the importance of addressing climate change into its constitution. The National Climate Change Strategy, formulated in 2012, is now being translated into long-term development plans. A renewable energy law opening the energy sector to private investment to boost RE development has been adopted in September of the same year. However, it will take time to develop the country’s vast RE potential, and in the meantime the fastest way to meet Tunisia’s growing energy needs might be through reinforcement of interconnections, and in particular the accelerated development of the Tunisia-Italy interconnector. Whether short-term or long-term, Tunisia will not succeed its transition to a secure and low carbon energy system without the cooperation of its Mediterranean neighbours, be it from the North or from the South shore. Tunisia could draw huge benefits from the creation of an integrated Euro-Med market given the country is ideally positioned to become a Med energy hub.
机译：突尼斯正在从“阿拉伯之春”中恢复过来，导致电力需求强劲增长（年平均用电量平均每年5％，高峰需求平均11％）。然而，在过去的4年中，几乎没有新的发电能力投产，而短缺的风险现在迫在眉睫。 电力需求的强劲增长转化为对进口和碳氢化合物的额外依赖。突尼斯的能源系统极其依赖碳氢化合物，石油和天然气满足99％的能源需求（石油为45％，天然气为55％）。发电几乎完全基于天然气（98％），而可再生能源（RE）的贡献很小。在突尼斯发现大量储量且生产足以满足国家需求之时，这种对石油和天然气的严重依赖。然而，发现并没有跟上需求的增长，突尼斯在2000年成为能源净进口国。净进口量现在为3.5千吨标准煤，占一次能源需求的38％。当前的天然气供应来源（国家生产和阿尔及利亚天然气，无论是通过合同的过境特许权使用费），最多都无法满足2020年以后的需求。 多样化能源组合和能源供应一直是突尼斯的优先事项，但迄今为止收效甚微。减少能源需求的增长也是当务之急，突尼斯是发展中国家制定和实施雄心勃勃的能源效率政策的先驱。但是，这还不足以防止进口依赖性增加。 2013年，突尼斯发起了一场有关能源转型的全国性辩论。能源战略的关键要素是： 1.开发国家能源资源和基础设施 2.加强能源效率计划 3.通过可再生能源发展实现能源结构多元化 4.发展/加强与马格里布国家和欧洲的相互联系 5，重组与体制改革 6.加强与马格里布和其他国家的合作 7.更好地管理能源战略和决策，并发起关于过渡的国家能源辩论。 此外，突尼斯已将气候变化纳入其2014年1月批准的新宪法中，是世界上第三个将应对气候变化重要性纳入其宪法的国家。 2012年制定的《国家气候变化战略》现已转化为长期发展计划。同年9月通过了一部可再生能源法，该法对能源部门开放以私人投资来促进可再生能源的发展。 但是，开发该国巨大的可再生能源潜力需要时间，同时满足突尼斯不断增长的能源需求的最快方法可能是通过加强互连，尤其是突尼斯-意大利互连器的加速发展。无论是短期还是长期，没有地中海邻国的合作，突尼斯都不会成功地过渡到安全的低碳能源系统，无论是北部还是南部。突尼斯可以从建立一体化的欧洲医疗市场中受益匪浅，因为该国处于成为医疗能源枢纽的理想位置。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号