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Modeling Correlated Effect and Random Effect of Advertising and Word-of-Mouth on Product Diffusion

机译:广告和口碑对产品扩散的相关效应和随机效应建模

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We develop a non-homogeneous Poisson model to study how the relationship between advertising and WOM and the occurrence of unexpected events affect product diffusion. For correlated effect, we generate parameters of advertising and WOM with given correlation by Copula method. For random effect, we use a Markov chain to modulate correlation between two parameters as well as distributions of two parameters. Numerical studies show that correlation between advertising and WOM speeds up diffusion process, but when considering a reasonable level within substitution or complement, managers should balance between scale of diffusion and speed of diffusion. Also, when random effect is neutral, complementary relationship creates more adoptions as unexpected events occur more frequently. Consequently, managers might be able to use correlation wisely to hedge from uncertainties.
机译:我们开发了一种非均匀的Poisson模型,以研究广告与WOM之间的关系以及意外事件的发生如何影响产品扩散。对于相关效果,我们通过Copula方法生成具有给定相关性的广告和WOM参数。对于随机效应,我们使用马尔可夫链来调节两个参数之间的相关性以及两个参数的分布。数值研究表明,广告和WOM之间的相关性加快了扩散过程,但当考虑替代或补充的合理水平时,管理者应在扩散规模和扩散速度之间取得平衡。同样,当随机效应是中性的时,由于意外事件的发生频率更高,所以互补关系会产生更多的采用。因此,管理者也许能够明智地利用相关性来对冲不确定性。

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