A flying state transfer model of an anti-radiation missile (ARM) and an evaluation model of the ARM landing points were established by using probability tree, based on the theory of excursion link to antagonize ARM. Then, a flow chart for the simulations of excursion link to antagonize ARM was obtained. The influences of characteristics, i.e. resolving angle, velocity and maximum normal overload of ARM, and the parameters of decoying system, i.e. the working time of radiation sources and distance between radiation sources, on protected probabilities of radar and additive radiation sources were analyzed, regarding excursion link and excursion equilateral triangle. Finally, landing point pictures of ARM were also given. Numerical results indicate that the protected probability of radar in excursion link is larger than that in excursion equilateral triangle. Hence, the excursion link that antagonizes ARMs is effective and economical.
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