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Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of the Translational Slide at the Cidu Section, 3.1k of the Taiwan Formosan Freeway

机译：台湾台湾高速公路3.1k慈渡段平移滑坡的敏感性和不确定性分析

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摘要

Long-term water immersion weakens slope rocks and degrades rock-layer parameters such as cohesion (c) and friction angle (Φ), causing slope failure. The traditional analyses of slope failure generally set fixed values to the required parameters by limit equilibrium, but omit uncertainties of the parameters. These methods fail to fully reflect the slope safety factor, causing unreliable calculated safety factors. We examined the collapse of the Cidu section (3K+100) dip slope on Taiwan Formosa Freeway for the sensitivity analysis of c and Φ and uncertainties related to the variation of the safety factor before and after water immersion and slope rock weakening. The sensitivity analysis results showed that c has greater effects on the slope safety factor compared with Φ. In the uncertainty analysis, we used three different point estimate methods and the Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the corresponding slope safety factors. This method established the probabilistic analysis of slope stability. We also explored the effect of ρ (correlation coefficient of c and tan Φ) on safety factors. The traditional analysis results found that the factor of safety is approximately 1, but the probability of failure of slopes reaches 50%, indicating urgency in using stabilizing measures.
机译：长期浸水会削弱斜坡岩石并降低岩层参数，例如内聚力（c）和摩擦角（Φ），从而导致斜坡破坏。传统的边坡破坏分析通常通过极限平衡将固定值设置为所需参数，但忽略了参数的不确定性。这些方法无法完全反映斜坡安全系数，从而导致计算出的安全系数不可靠。我们研究了台湾福摩萨高速公路Cidu断面（3K + 100）倾角的塌陷，以进行c和Φ的敏感性分析以及与水浸和边坡软化前后安全系数变化相关的不确定性。灵敏度分析结果表明，与Φ相比，c对边坡安全系数的影响更大。在不确定性分析中，我们使用了三种不同的点估计方法和蒙特卡洛模拟来计算相应的边坡安全系数。该方法建立了边坡稳定性的概率分析。我们还探讨了ρ（c和tanΦ的相关系数）对安全系数的影响。传统分析结果表明，安全系数约为1，但边坡破坏的可能性达到50％，这表明使用稳定措施的紧迫性。

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