• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>International astronautical congress >Estimating acute radiation sickness incidence for exploration missions outside of low earth orbit
【24h】

Estimating acute radiation sickness incidence for exploration missions outside of low earth orbit

机译：估算低地球轨道之外的探索任务的急性放射病发生率

获取原文
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Solar particle event (SPE) incidence and dose rate estimates have been determined from data on past SPE. However, estimates of the probability of an operationally significant event during future exploration missions are lacking. The integrated medical model (IMM) is a probabilistic risk analysis based model approved by NASA for use as a decision support tool to evaluate the likelihood of mission-specific incidence of medical events and their impact on mission outcomes. To conduct the analysis, input data including probability of clinical outcomes for pre-specified medical conditions is required. Towards this end, probability of acute radiation syndrome (ARS) for missions outside low earth orbit (LEO) was estimated. A yearly incidence for SPE with fluence of 10^9-10^10 protons per cm^2 and >10^10 protons per cm^2 of protons exceeding 30 MeV was estimated from published data to be 0.264 and 0.00167, respectively. Probability of any ARS, need for evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL) was assigned for best and worst case scenarios based on published data on clinical outcomes from terrestrial radiation exposures. Using these parameters, the likelihood of any ARS, EVAC, and LOCL for the Apollo missions was estimated to be 0.045 per mission (1 in 22 missions), 0.0011 per mission (1 in 909 missions), and 1.9e10^-5 per mission (1 in 53200 missions), respectively. Albeit limited, this approach enables estimation of ARS incidence from published data and suggests that incidence of operationally significant ARS endangering crew or mission outcomes may be low despite moderate shielding. Iterative modelling of ARS risk by incorporating additional parameters and revising current estimates may improve accuracy and applicability of these findings and offer insights into optimizing resource allocation for protection against SPE during exploration missions.
机译：已根据过去SPE的数据确定了太阳粒子事件（SPE）的发生率和剂量率估算值。但是，缺乏对未来勘探任务期间发生重大业务事件的可能性的估计。集成医疗模型（IMM）是一种基于概率风险分析的模型，已被NASA批准用作决策支持工具，以评估特定任务的医疗事件发生的可能性及其对任务结果的影响。为了进行分析，需要输入数据，包括针对预定医疗状况的临床结果的概率。为此，估计了低地球轨道（LEO）以外的任务发生急性辐射综合症（ARS）的可能性。从已公开的数据估计，能量密度为10 ^ 9-10 ^ 10质子/ cm ^ 2和> 10 ^ 10质子/ cm ^ 2的质子超过30 MeV的SPE年发生率分别为0.264和0.00167。根据已发布的地面辐射暴露临床结果数据，确定了最佳和最差情况下的任何ARS可能性，疏散需求（EVAC）和机组人员生命损失（LOCL）。使用这些参数，对于阿波罗任务，任何ARS，EVAC和LOCL的可能性估计为：每个任务0.045（22个任务中的1个），每个任务0.0011（909个任务中的1个）和每个任务1.9e10 ^ -5 （53200个任务中的1个）。尽管有局限性，但这种方法可以根据已发布的数据估算ARS的发生率，并表明尽管有适当的防护措施，但仍对运营造成重大威胁的ARS危及机组人员或任务结果的发生率可能较低。通过合并其他参数并修改当前估计值，对ARS风险进行迭代建模可以提高这些发现的准确性和适用性，并可以为优化资源分配提供见解，以在勘探任务期间针对SPE进行保护。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号