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Limit State Sinkhole Risk Assessment

机译：极限状态污水池风险评估

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摘要

A unique sinkhole limit state risk assessment methodology has been developed that incorporates: (1) an evaluation of primary triggering mechanisms; (2) assessment of key risk factors (past failure history, soil-bedrock type, groundwater flow, and hydrology); (3) an evaluation of human activities (site development, drainage changes, construction activities); and (4) and most importantly, the impacts of extreme weather (precipitation, temperature, flash flooding, erosion). Baseline load and resistance parameters for a given karst area or site are analyzed for normal pre-failure or typical failure limit states. Various load and critical resistance factors are then applied to determine possible failure limit states. A simple graph or map of each critical load or resistance factor with time or location is developed for key parameters such as sinkhole failure history, precipitation, groundwater fluctuations-flow, surface runoff, drainage changes, and any relevant activity by man. The average normal range, upper and lower damage-failure thresholds are identified along with the upper and lower extremes that are associated with major failures and disasters. By overlaying the various load-resistance factors, critical limit states and sinkhole risk are determined for any given area and combinations of loading-resistance conditions. The use of the sinkhole limit state risk assessment methodology is presented for a PA33-Tatamy Road Pennsylvania sinkhole case study.
机译：已开发出一种独特的下沉极限状态风险评估方法，该方法包括：（1）对主要触发机制的评估; （2）评估关键风险因素（过去的失败历史，土壤-基岩类型，地下水流量和水文学）; （3）对人类活动（场地开发，排水变化，建筑活动）的评估; （4）最重要的是，极端天气的影响（降水，温度，山洪，侵蚀）。针对给定的喀斯特地区或岩溶地区，分析了正常载荷前或典型失效极限状态下的基线载荷和阻力参数。然后应用各种负载和临界电阻系数来确定可能的故障极限状态。针对关键参数（例如下沉历史，降水，地下水波动-流量，地表径流，排水变化以及人为进行的任何相关活动）的关键参数，绘制了每个关键载荷或阻力因数随时间或位置的简单图形或地图。确定平均正常范围，损坏破坏的上限和下限以及与重大故障和灾难相关的上限和下限。通过叠加各种载荷抵抗因素，可以确定任何给定区域以及载荷抵抗条件组合的临界极限状态和下沉风险。针对PA33-Tatamy Road Pennsylvania的污水坑案例研究，提出了污水坑极限状态风险评估方法的使用。

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