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首页> 外文会议>Asian conference on remote sensing;ACRS >IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF A BASIN
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IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF A BASIN

机译：气候变化对流域水文制度的影响

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The important parameters that affect hydrologic process are climatic variables such as maximum-minimum temperature and precipitation. Impact of these variables on hydrology at basin scale is an important factor for efficient management of water resources. In this study the impact of climate change on hydrological regime of Beas basin up to Mandi was studied. The physically based semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was used to simulate the basin hydrology. Topographic parameters were derived from remote sensing data and land use and soil parameters were analyzed in a GIS environment. SWAT model performance was found in close agreement with the observed and simulated values with correlation coefficient (R) of 0.81 when it was ran from 1993 to 2005 period for calibration purpose. Water balance scenarios for future climatic conditions with different time periods of early century (2010-2040), mid century (2045-2070) and end century (2075-2098) were simulated using the model for climate change scenarios of representation concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Only meteorological forcings were changed during simulation and other parameters were kept same to remove the effects of land use change. A decreasing trend was observed in the total precipitation received by a decrease in 13%, thus explaining a decrease in runoff values by an average of 8% for both RCP scenarios. Also, an increasing trend was observed in the temperature values by an increase of 47%, explaining a decrease in snowmelt contribution to runoff by 50%. The results obtained in this study, suggests that climate change impacts hydrological regime of Beas basin significantly. These results obtained may help planners and policy makers in future development of the basin area with respect to water resources management. It is to be noted that, in the present study, the bias and uncertainty in the future predictions are not considered.
机译：影响水文过程的重要参数是气候变量，例如最大 - 最小温度和降水。这些变量对盆地规模水文的影响是有效管理水资源的重要因素。在这项研究中，研究了气候变化对盆地盆地水文制度的影响。物理基础的半分布水文模型，土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）用于模拟盆氏水文。地形参数来自遥感数据，并在GIS环境中分析了土地利用和土壤参数。在1993年从1993年到2005年期间，与0.81的相关系数（R）的观察和模拟值密切一致地发现了SWAT模型性能。利用早期世纪（2010-2040），中世纪（2045-2070）和最终世纪（2075-2098）的不同时间段（2075-2098）进行了水平方案，采用了表示浓度途径的气候变化场景模型（RCP ）4.5和8.5。只有在模拟期间只改变了气象强制，并且其他参数保持不变，以消除土地利用变化的影响。在13％下降的总降水中观察到降低趋势，因此RCP场景的平均降低径流值降低为8％。此外，在温度值中观察到增加的趋势，增加了47％，解释了越来越多的散耕剂贡献50％。在本研究中获得的结果表明，气候变化显着影响BEAS盆地的水文制度。获得的这些结果可以帮助策划者和决策者在盆地地区的未来发展，以及水资源管理。应注意，在本研究中，未考虑未来预测中的偏差和不确定性。

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