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Seismic Risk Analysis for Simply-Supported Girder Bridges Based on Total Probability Theorem

机译：基于总概率定理的简支梁桥地震风险分析

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摘要

The seismic risk analysis comprises seismic hazard analysis, probabilistic seismic demand analysis and probabilistic capacity analysis. There exist the uncertainties in each parts. Therefore, accounting for the uncertainties during the seismic risk analysis, the closed-form formula of seismic risk different performance level is derived in this research based on total probability theory accounting for the uncertainties during the seismic risk analysis. Taking a simply-supported concrete I girder bridge (SSCI) as an engineering background, the finite element model is established by OpenSees. 100 ground motion records are chosen from PEER based on the site condition of bridge to account for the uncertainties of earthquake. Then, the nonlinear time analysis are conducted to establish the probabilistic seismic demand model. The influence of uncertainties of the seismic demand and the performance level threshold on the seismic risk is discussed, which shows that the seismic risk would be greatly underestimated when ignoring the uncertainties.
机译：地震危险性分析包括地震危险性分析，概率地震需求分析和概率能力分析。每个部分都存在不确定性。因此，在考虑地震风险分析过程中的不确定性的基础上，本研究基于总概率理论，在考虑地震风险分析过程中的不确定性的基础上，推导了不同性能水平的地震风险封闭式公式。以简单支撑的混凝土工字梁桥（SSCI）为工程背景，由OpenSees建立了有限元模型。根据桥梁的现场情况，从PEER中选择了100条地面运动记录，以考虑地震的不确定性。然后，进行非线性时间分析，建立概率地震需求模型。讨论了地震需求的不确定性和性能水平阈值对地震危险性的影响，这表明忽略不确定性会大大低估地震危险性。

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