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Prediction and forecast for COVID-19 Outbreak in India based on Enhanced Epidemiological Models

机译：基于增强流行病学模型的印度COVID-19暴发的预测和预报

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This paper has analyzed the COVID-19 outbreak in India. This Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) also known Novel Coronavirus or COVID-19 is an infectious and contagious viral Respiratory disease that will analyze the magnitude of outbreak in India and future projections of the same. In China, where the outbreak first started, the basic reproduction number, $mathrm{R}_{0}$ is found to be lying between 2-2.5, varying across regions. In India, there have been a total of 70767 confirmed cases of people infected with this disease as reported by the Government of India up to 11 May 2020. In this work, the difference between number of actual reported confirmed cases and approximate number of actual cases, due to insufficient number of tests being conducted, is highlighted based on a unique approximate mathematical formula, thereby establishing relationship between Death Count due to disease and number of people infected with it. Further, utilizing ICMR's available data about COVID-19 patients in India and employing an Enhanced Version of SIR Epidemic Model also known as SIRD devised by generating optimal parameter values and taking number of deaths due to pandemic into account, the time dependence of Outbreak's Intensity in India forecasting maximum number of confirmed active cases of COVID-19 present in a day (Peak Value) and also predicting total number of deaths in India due to the outbreak.
机译：本文分析了印度的COVID-19暴发。这种严重的急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）也称为新型冠状病毒或COVID-19，是一种具有传染性和传染性的病毒性呼吸系统疾病，它将分析印度的暴发规模以及对该疾病的未来预测。在首次爆发的中国，基本繁殖数量 $ \ mathrm {R} _ {0} $ 被发现位于2-2.5之间，并且在不同地区之间有所不同。截至2020年5月11日，印度政府在印度总共报告了70767例确诊为该病的人。在这项工作中，实际报告的确诊病例数与实际病例的近似数之间的差额根据唯一的近似数学公式突出显示由于进行的测试数量不足而引起的疾病，从而在疾病导致的死亡人数与感染该疾病的人数之间建立了联系。此外，利用ICMR在印度的有关COVID-19患者的可用数据，并采用SIR流行病模型的增强版本（也称为SIRD），该模型是通过生成最佳参数值并考虑大流行导致的死亡人数而设计的。印度预测一天中确认的COVID-19确诊活跃病例的最大数量（峰值），并且还预测印度因暴发造成的死亡总数。

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