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首页> 外文会议>Canadian Society for Civil Engineering annual conference >DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY - THE ROLE OF COMMON SENSE IN CIVIL ENGINEERING
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DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY - THE ROLE OF COMMON SENSE IN CIVIL ENGINEERING

机译：不确定性的决策 - 常识在土木工程中的作用

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When is a Civil Engineering solution good enough? When does it support sustainable communities? The purpose of this opinion paper is twofold: 1) To convey the role of common sense in Civil Engineering; and, 2) To help our young Civil Engineers recognize situations where perfection must be sought, versus those where the proposed solution is sufficient and constitutes good engineering. The expectation for perfection, fuelled as it now is by instant telecommunications, big data, and phenomenal increases in computation power, creates the expectation that everything must be made perfect, that no flaws can be tolerated, and that it must all happen now. Yet behind every complex computer model and algorithm are simplifying assumptions, sometimes with a very large margin of error. Normal human frailties and preconceptions can bias every engineering project. As such, there is and will continue to be a place for good old-fashioned common sense. Therefore, it is important to balance these expectations created by our current information intensive technology and models against the concepts that: a) perfection is not always achievable nor affordable; b) often an 80% perfect solution is still good engineering; and, c) good engineering focuses on the soundness of the solution not the complexity of the calculation. As our profession pushes forward to embrace sustainability, we need to remind ourselves that it is preferable to employ good engineering and common sense to progress onwards, rather than waiting or being dissuaded from acting because we have not achieved the perfect solution. The consequences of sustainability require we act now, not later.
机译：什么时候土木工程解决方案足够好？它什么时候支持可持续社区？本文论文的目的是双重：1）传达常识在土木工程中的作用; 2）帮助我们的年轻土木工程师认识到必须寻求完美的情况，而那些提出的解决方案足够并构成良好工程的情况。完美的期望，因为现在的瞬间电信，大数据和计算能力的增加，创造了一切必要的期望，即没有缺陷，它现在必须全部发生。然而，每个复杂的计算机模型和算法后面都是简化假设，有时有一个非常大的误差余量。正常的人类脆弱和偏见可以偏见每个工程项目。因此，有一个良好的老式常识的地方。因此，重要的是要平衡我们目前的信息密集技术和模型对概念的这些预期，即：a）完美并不总是可以实现的也不负担得起; b）通常，80％完美的解决方案仍然是良好的工程;而且，c）良好的工程侧重于解决方案的声音，而不是计算的复杂性。由于我们的职业推动了可持续性，我们需要提醒自己，最好采用良好的工程和常识来取得进展，而不是等待或被疏散，因为我们没有实现完美的解决方案。可持续性的后果要求我们现在采取行动，而不是稍后。

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