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The Selection Dynamic Model Considering Anticipation in Social Population Learning

机译：社会人口学习中考虑预期的选择动力学模型

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The existing selection dynamic models in evolutionary game theory are still localized in the myopia hypothesis. This paper analyzes the social population have some anticipated ability, so they will consider the current payoff, the learning barriers and the payoff increasing rate, that’s the anticipative future payoff, when changing the current strategy. The paper describes the selected dynamic model considering anticipation based on the Sethi (1998), and proves that this model doesn’t accord with the weak payoff-positive dynamic. The population behavior hypothesis that they have some anticipated ability is fit for the social economy evolutionary phenomenon. At last, the paper analyzes a case that’s the Chinese rural labor transfer problem, where the existing research shows that the rural labor transfer behavior accords with the imitating behavior hypothesis, and uses the selection dynamic model considering anticipation to forecast the Chinese rural labor transferring trend until the 2050year.
机译：进化博弈论中现有的选择动力学模型仍然局限在近视假设中。本文分析了具有一定预期能力的社会人口，因此在更改当前策略时，他们将考虑当前收益，学习障碍和收益增长率，即预期的未来收益。本文基于Sethi（1998）描述了考虑了预期的选择的动力学模型，并证明该模型与弱收益正动力学不符。他们具有一定的预期能力的人口行为假说适合于社会经济进化现象。最后，本文以中国农村劳动力转移问题为例进行了分析，现有研究表明农村劳动力转移行为符合模仿行为假设，并采用考虑了预期的选择动态模型对中国农村劳动力转移趋势进行了预测。直到2050年。

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