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首页> 外文会议>第12届国际数学地质大会 >Application of a Multivariate-Bayesian Approach to Evaluating Geological Risk at Play Level, Nanpu Sag, Eastern China
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Application of a Multivariate-Bayesian Approach to Evaluating Geological Risk at Play Level, Nanpu Sag, Eastern China

机译：多元贝叶斯方法在游戏水平地质风险评估中的应用，中国南浦凹陷

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摘要

Geological risk evaluation is one of the important components in petroleum resource assessment. In this paper, a multivariate-Bayesian approach was applied to the Nanpu Sag of the Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China, to evaluate the geological risk of the structural play in the Oligocene Dongying Formation (Ed1). Geological data from 343 exploratory wells and seismic interpretation available at the end of 2004 were used to map the geological risk of petroleum occurrence, employing the multivariate-Bayesian approach. After the evaluation, seventeen wells were drilled in 2005 and sixteen penetrated the Ed1 and tested for oil. Post drilling analysis shows that eight of the nine wells drilled in areas with predicted high probability of hydrocarbon occurrence (＞50%) encountered commercial oil with high flow rates and thick net pay, and one tested oil with a low flow rate. The other seven wells were drilled in areas with relatively low probability (＜50%), of which three tested dry and four recovered oil with relatively low flow rates. The predicted high potential and low risk areas in southeastern Nanpu Sag were confirmed by these sixteen exploratory wells with an 81% success rate. Comparison of post-drilling results with the pre-drilling prediction suggests that the multivariate-Bayesian approach can help visualize geological risk, thus improving exploration success by optimizing the drilling strategy.
机译：地质风险评估是石油资源评估的重要组成部分之一。本文采用多元贝叶斯方法对中国东部渤海湾盆地南浦凹陷进行了评价，以评价渐新世东营组（Ed1）构造作用的地质风险。利用多元贝叶斯方法，使用了2004年底的343口探井的地质数据和地震解释资料来绘制石油发生的地质风险图。评估之后，2005年钻了17口井，有16口渗透到Ed1井并进行了石油测试。钻后分析表明，在预测的碳氢化合物发生可能性高（> 50％）的地区中，九口井中的八口遇到了流速高，净油厚的商业油，而一口试验的低流速油。另外七口井在概率相对较低（＜50％）的地区钻探，其中三口试井，四口采油量相对较低。这16口探井证实了南浦凹陷东南部的预测高潜力和低风险区域，成功率达81％。钻后结果与钻前预测的比较表明，多元贝叶斯方法可以帮助可视化地质风险，从而通过优化钻探策略来提高勘探成功率。

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