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Reducing Uncertainty of Continuous Streamflow Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) using Regional Constraints: Using regional constraints for PUB

机译：使用区域约束来减少未测量盆地（PUB）中连续流量预测的不确定性：使用区域约束进行PUB

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Our environment is changing rapidly in many regions of the world, with oftensignificantimplications for current and future water resources. Disturbances to thecurrent environmental system include land cover change, and the increasing impactsof a changing climate. The potential of developing successful strategies to respond tothese changes lies in our capacity to anticipate their impact. One important questionin this context is the potential change to streamflow characteristics at the watershedscale. However, most watersheds in the US and elsewhere are ungauged, leading tolarge uncertainty in our hydrological predictions to establish benchmarks, which areoften the basis for the development of water resources management strategies. Howcan we obtain a reliable and continuous spatio-temporal picture of regionalenvironmental status, trends and long-term projections to identify information gaps –and thus monitoring needs – and likely hot spots and hot moments where for examplecritical ecosystem thresholds are exceeded or will be exceeded in the future? Thispaper presents a methodology to formalize regional information on streamflowcharacteristics using a Mixture of Gaussians approach, which provides constraints oncontinuous watershed simulations. US examples show how this approach leads toreduced uncertainty in continuous streamflow predictions for water management inungauged basins and in terms of potential change impacts.
机译：我们的环境在世界的许多地区迅速变化，与祝福 对当前和未来水资源的影响。对这件事的骚乱 目前的环境系统包括陆地覆盖变化，影响越来越大 不断变化的气候。发展成功策略的潜力要回应 这些变化在于我们预测其影响的能力。一个重要的问题 在这种情况下，流域流出特征的潜在变化 规模。然而，美国和其他地方的大多数流域都没有乞讨，导致 我们的水文预测中的大不确定性建立基准，这是 通常是水资源管理战略发展的基础。如何 我们可以获得区域的可靠和连续的时空图片吗？ 环境状况，趋势和长期预测，识别信息差距 - 并因此监测需求 - 并且可能是热点和热点时刻 未来超出或将超出关键生态系统阈值？这 论文提出了一种将区域信息正式化的流出方法 使用高斯方法的混合的特征，为此提供限制 连续流域模拟。美国的例子展示了这种方法如何导致 减少不确定的持续流流预测，用于水管理 未凝固的盆地和潜在的变化影响。

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