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A New Early Warning Method and Its Applications of the Complex Systems for Real Estate Market

机译:房地产市场复杂系统的一种新的预警方法及其应用

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摘要

A new early warning method of the complex systems for real estate market is proposed in this paper. First, principle component analysis method is adopted, and 8 important indexes are screened from a great number of indices. Second, these 8 important indices are divided into 3 kinds which are called as antecedent, synchronous and delayed with the time-difference correlation analysis method. Third, the real estate market’s situations are classified into 5 types with the fuzzy pattern recognition method. On the foundation, degree of Euclid closeness is used to counter which type the annual real estate market belongs to, so that the administrators can adjust their macro control policies timely, and avoid the crisis of real estate industry. Finally, the method proposed here is applied to a real estate market system in a China city and the satisfying results are obtained.
机译:提出了一种针对房地产市场复杂系统的预警方法。首先,采用主成分分析法,从大量指标中筛选出8个重要指标。其次,用时差相关分析法将这8个重要指标分为先行,同步和延迟3种。第三,运用模糊模式识别法将房地产市场状况分为五类。在此基础上,利用欧几里得的亲密程度来应对年度房地产市场属于哪种类型,从而使管理者能够及时调整宏观调控政策,避免房地产行业的危机。最后,将本文提出的方法应用于中国城市房地产市场体系,取得了满意的结果。

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