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首页> 外文会议>Canadian Society for Civil Engineering annual conference >RISK ASSESSMENT AND MODELING FOR TSUNAMIS: A CASE STUDY IN SRI LANKA
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RISK ASSESSMENT AND MODELING FOR TSUNAMIS: A CASE STUDY IN SRI LANKA

机译：海啸的风险评估和建模：以斯里兰卡为例

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The giant tsunami that occurred in 2004 opened the eyes of many nations adjacent to theIndian Ocean, who had thus far believed that no such calamities would befall them. The disastrousconsequences of the tsunami shattered livelihoods, apart from the well-known statistics of deaths andfinancial losses. While acknowledging the inevitable occurrence of earthquakes that are the major causefor tsunamis, relief can be sought in the context of early warning. Sri Lanka stands as the second worstaffected country of the 2004 Asian tsunami and required a proper evaluation of the existing warningprotocols. This paper explains a unique research approach for effective evaluation of warning andevacuation processes from the international level to the village level. A comprehensive warning andevacuation network is constructed with a proper understanding of post-earthquake activities. Simulationof the network yields plausible probability estimates for the time available for a successful evacuation.However, the risks associated with each activity of the simulated networks may impose a seriousuncertainty on this rough estimate. Failure of key elements in the network, specifically a malfunction oftsunami detection systems, failure of power and communication, etc., may cause significantdiscrepancies. Moreover, scenarios, such as night-time tsunamis, pose an additional, often unforeseenthreat. The evolving nature of technologies and the behavioural patterns of the public, in turn, can makethe existing network obsolete; and thus, a future network based on predicted information must also bemodeled. The paper accommodates these scenarios and attempts to quantitatively address theirconsequences in the context of delay in evacuations.
机译：2004年发生的巨大海啸使毗邻该国的许多国家睁开了眼睛。 迄今为止，印度洋一直认为不会发生此类灾难。灾难性的 除了众所周知的死亡人数统计数据，海啸破坏了生计的后果 财务损失。承认不可避免地发生地震是主要原因 对于海啸，可以在预警的情况下寻求救济。斯里兰卡位居第二 受灾的2004年亚洲海啸国家，并要求对现有警告进行适当评估 协议。本文介绍了一种独特的研究方法，可以有效地评估警告和 从国际到村级的疏散过程。全面的警告和 疏散网络的构建对地震后的活动有适当的了解。模拟 网络的疏散会为成功疏散提供可用时间的合理概率估计。 但是，与模拟网络的每个活动相关的风险可能会造成严重后果。 这种粗略估计的不确定性。网络中关键元素的故障，特别是 海啸检测系统，电源和通信故障等可能会导致严重 差异。此外，诸如夜间海啸之类的场景会带来额外的，通常是无法预料的 威胁。技术的不断发展的本质和公众的行为模式反过来可以使 现有网络已过时;因此，基于预测信息的未来网络也必须 模仿。本文适应了这些情况，并试图定量解决它们 疏散延误带来的后果。

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