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首页> 外文会议>International conference of the system dynamics society >System Dynamics Model for Transportation Infrastructure Investment and Cultural Heritage Tourism Development: A Case Study of Xidi and Hongcun Historical Villages
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System Dynamics Model for Transportation Infrastructure Investment and Cultural Heritage Tourism Development: A Case Study of Xidi and Hongcun Historical Villages

机译：交通基础设施投资与文化遗产旅游开发的系统动力学模型-以西递，宏村历史村落为例

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摘要

A system dynamics model is proposed to analyze the impacts of transportation infrastructure investment on the tourism development of Xidi and Hongcun World Heritage Villages in southern Anhui province, China. It is shown that both the short and long term impacts of transportation infrastructure investment on tourism development could be well predicted by the model. To achieve maximum tourism revenue, both villages attempt to take an aggressive strategy to continuously increase transportation infrastructure investment and exploit all available land. According to the scenarios results from the simulation, several other development strategies are proposed as well as the prediction of the perspective of the two villages 20 years later: with all available land being exploited, the sites are still full of tourists that are comprised mainly of mass tourists.
机译：提出了系统动力学模型来分析交通基础设施投资对安徽南部西递和宏村世界遗产村旅游业发展的影响。结果表明，该模型可以很好地预测交通基础设施投资对旅游业发展的短期和长期影响。为了获得最大的旅游收入，两个村庄都试图采取积极的策略来不断增加交通基础设施投资并开发所有可用土地。根据模拟的情景结果，提出了其他几种发展策略，并对20年后的两个村庄的前景进行了预测：在所有可用土地被开发的情况下，这些景点仍然到处都是游客，主要包括大众游客。

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