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Raising the Quality of Human Life - A Least Cost Route to Reducing Carbon Emissions: Insights from a System Dynamics Model

机译：提高人类生活质量-减少碳排放的最低成本途径：来自系统动力学模型的见解

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As the Kyoto Protocol approaches the end of its validity and as the international community prepares for designing its successor, the pressure to act, for both developed and developing countries, is inexorably building up. Developing countries emphasize that their total emissions may be significant and growing, but their per capita emissions are still very low -- far below those of the developed world. On the other hand, the industrialised countries claim that without some reduction in future emissions from emerging economies, global change cannot be contained within the limits that are considered safe. This paper looks at how rapid improvements in quality of life among the world's poorest, and specific, carefully designed interventions, through their impact may provide the one common platform that would attract and bring together almost all parties. These interventions would identify leverage points in societies which have the greatest impact for the least cost and disruption. This paper presents a possible win-win strategy that can bring the competitors in the current game to play to agreed, logic-based and consistent rules. These rules would be derived from a systems analysis that attempts to overcome the northern consumption vs southern population related stand-offs that exist today.
机译：随着《京都议定书》的有效期接近尾声，以及国际社会为设计其继任者做准备，对发达国家和发展中国家采取行动的压力无可避免地在增加。发展中国家强调，它们的总排放量可能很大并且还在增长，但是它们的人均排放量仍然很低，远低于发达国家的水平。另一方面，工业化国家声称，如果不减少新兴经济体的未来排放量，就不能将全球变化控制在安全范围之内。本文研究了世界上最贫穷，最精心设计的干预措施如何通过其影响迅速提高生活质量，这些干预措施可能会提供一个共同的平台，将几乎所有各方都吸引到一起。这些干预措施将确定社会中的影响力点，这些影响点对成本和破坏的影响最小。本文提出了一种可能的双赢策略，该策略可以使当前游戏中的竞争者遵循公认的，基于逻辑的，一致的规则。这些规则将从系统分析中得出，该系统分析试图克服当今存在的北方消费与南方人口相关的僵局。

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