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首页> 外文会议>AIAA SPACE conference exposition >Predicting Space Command's Satellite Availability Using Proprietary Predictive Algorithms to Stop Premature and Surprise Equipment Failures
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Predicting Space Command's Satellite Availability Using Proprietary Predictive Algorithms to Stop Premature and Surprise Equipment Failures

机译：使用专有的预测算法来预测太空司令部的卫星可用性，以阻止过早发生的设备故障和意外设备故障

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The increase in spacecraft reliability/usable life from using a prognostic and health management (PHM) program offers Space Command the tools to predict on-orbit space asset availability with certainty. The surprise failures of Space Commands AEHF-1 geostationary communications satellite and the GPS IIF-1 navigation satellite in 2010 demonstrates that Space Command cannot plan on having satellites available with certainty and so must rely on having excessive oversupply to ensure space asset services are available. Surprise equipment failures can be stopped by space-vehicle factory test personnel and on-orbit mission operations engineers completing a prognostic analysis to identify the equipment with accelerated aging. A prognostic analysis includes a scientific analysis of the equipment telemetry that will illustrate any non-repeatable transient event (NRTE) in normal appearing telemetry from fully functional equipment. If an NRTE is present in the data, it can be used to measure equipment remaining usable, allowing personnel to predict equipment failures with certainty. Equipment that has experienced a NRTE will fail prematurely with 100% certainty. The procurement of Space Command satellites by the Air Force Space and Missiles Systems Center results in Space Command space missions that fail prematurely reaching failure rates as high as 25% per year. In 2010, 2 SMC satellites were launched and both suffered a premature failure, resulting in a 100% failure rate. Both were recoverable but the two failures demonstrate that AFSMC continues to procure satellites that will fail prematurely. To stop procuring equipment that will failure prematurely, the Air Force procurement contract personnel can add the requirement for space asset suppliers to identify the equipment that will fail prematurely for replacement by measuring the usable life of all on-board equipment and replace the equipment that will fail prematurely. Space Command space vehicle equipment that passes acceptance testing that fails prematurely from having at least one part with accelerated aging. These parts cannot be identified by the suppliers and so engineers resort to relying on dynamic environmental factory testing to identify the unreliable equipment for replacement. However, testing equipment does not identify the equipment that will fail prematurely and so testing is inadequate for producing equipment that will not fail prematurely. During dynamic environmental equipment testing known as ATP, only equipment performance is measured and equipment performance is unrelated to usable life so Space Command space vehicle equipment should be failing prematurely. Equipment mission life is not measured today; it is calculated using the stochastic equations from reliability analysis engineering whose results are unrelated to specific equipment usable life.
机译：使用预后和健康管理（PHM）程序的航天器可靠性/可用生命的增加提供了空间命令，以确定性地预测轨道空间资产可用性的工具。太空命令的惊喜失败Aehf-1地球静止通信卫星和GPS IIF-1导航卫星在2010年展示了空间命令不能规定有确定的卫星，因此必须依赖过度供过于，以确保空间资产服务可用。令人惊讶的设备故障可以通过太空车辆厂测试人员和轨道任务操作工程师停止，完成预后分析，以确定具有加速老化的设备。预后分析包括对设备遥测的科学分析，该遥测将在全功能设备中说明正常出现的遥测中的任何不可重复的瞬态事件（nrte）。如果数据中存在NRTE，则可以使用它来测量剩余的设备，允许人员以确定性预测设备故障。经历了NRTE的设备将过早地失败100％确定性。空军空间和导弹系统中心的空间指挥卫星采购可导致空间指挥空间任务，该任务过早地达到每年高达25％的失效率。 2010年，推出了2个SMC卫星，两者都遭受过早的失败，导致了100％的失败率。两者都可以恢复，但这两个失败表明，AFSMC继续采购将过早失败的卫星。为了停止采购将过早地失效的设备，空军采购合同人员可以增加空间资产供应商的要求，以识别通过测量所有车载设备的可用性并更换将替换将更换的设备过早失败。通过验收测试的空间命令空间车辆设备过早地失败，从至少有一部分具有加速老化。这些部件不能通过供应商和所以工程师们依靠动态环境工厂测试来识别，以确定更换的不可靠的设备。但是，测试设备不识别过早失效的设备，因此对生产无法过早失效的设备不充分。在称为ATP的动态环境设备检测期间，仅测量设备性能，设备性能与可用生命无关，因此空间指挥太空车辆设备应过早发生故障。设备使命终身未衡量;使用来自可靠性分析工程的随机方程来计算，其结果与特定设备使用寿命无关。

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