Yuan-dollar exchange rate and Chinese export to America: Based on different exchange rate regime

机译：人民币兑美元汇率与中国对美国出口：基于不同汇率制度

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Using monthly data since 1994 when RMB exchange rate was unified, and adopting the Econometric methodology of Johansen-Juselius's co-integration analysis, this paper makes a contrastive analysis on the effect of yuan-dollar bilateral RER to Sino-American export during two different exchange rate regime periods, i.e. 1994.1–2005.6 and 2005.7–2009.12. The paper finds that there is a long-term co-integration relationship among Sino-American export, yuan-dollar bilateral RER and American real income during the period of 1994.1–2005.6, where the elasticity coefficients of Sino-American export to yuan-dollar bilateral RER and American real income are 5.53 and 4.76 respectively, on the high side. But there exists no long-run co-integration relationship among Sino-American export, yuan-dollar bilateral RER and American real income during the period of 2005.7–2009.12. So we should not use data within different exchange rate regime periods in studying the effect of exchange rate on foreign trade, otherwise, we will get wrong results.

机译：利用1994年人民币汇率统一以来的月度数据，并采用Johansen-Juselius的协整分析的计量经济学方法，对两种不同汇率下人民币对美元双边RER对中美出口的影响进行了对比分析。汇率制度时期，即1994.1–2005.6和2005.7–2009.12。研究发现，1994.1–2005.6年，中美出口，人民币-美元双边RER和美国实际收入之间存在长期的协整关系，其中中美出口对美元-美元的弹性系数双边RER和美国实际收入分别较高，分别为5.53和4.76。但是在2005.7-2009.12期间，中美出口，人民币-美元双边RER和美国实际收入之间没有长期的协整关系。因此，在研究汇率对外贸的影响时，不应使用不同汇率制度时期内的数据，否则会得出错误的结果。

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《2011 International Conference on E-Business and E-Government》|2011年|p.1-4|共4页
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Zhang Genneng; Hu Wenxiu;
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中图分类数字通信网;
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Chinese export to America; RMB real exchange rate; co-integration analysis;

机译：中国对美出口;人民币实际汇率;协整分析;

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Yuan-dollar exchange rate and Chinese export to America: Based on different exchange rate regime

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