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首页> 外文会议>2011 International Conference on Business Management and Electronic Information >Preliminary study on sustainable utilization assessment and its early-warning model for marine fisheries resources in the East China Sea
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Preliminary study on sustainable utilization assessment and its early-warning model for marine fisheries resources in the East China Sea

机译：东海海洋渔业资源可持续利用评价及其预警模型初探

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Since the 90s, the topics about fisheries sustainable development had been carried out by international organizations including FAO and many researchers, especially in the fields of sustainable utilization of fisheries resources (SUFR). However, in this fields, one of the most important and urgent topics is how to evaluate the sustainable level, how to determine the basis, standards and the way to evaluate, and how to build the evaluate framework, so that the fisheries sustainable system is reflected in all dimensions. It is considered that the SUFR is a complicated system which contains economic continuity, resources continuity and social continuity, of which the resources continuity is the most important. The paper primary puts forward the general ways on the synthesis assessment of sustainable use of fisheries resources. The way possess the advantages over the traditional bio-economic models since it fully reflect the system of sustainable use of fisheries resources. The paper takes the fisheries resources in East China Sea from 1978 to 1990 as an example. The results indicates that the level of sustainable use of fisheries resources in East China Sea general falls, the value from 1983 to 1986 locate in the lower level, the value after 1987 improves slowly. The results also reveal that the fishery resource in 1978 has been over-fished and lie in the light warning level. During 1983 and 1990, the fishery resources continue to decline and are located in the higher warning at all. Based on the corrected statistics data from 1991 to 1999 in East China Sea, the paper takes the dynamic early-warning model to analyze the warning of fishery resource. The results also indicate that the fishery resources from 1991 to 1998 are all in the higher warning level, and that in 1999 has been at the edge of highest warning.
机译：自90年代以来，包括粮农组织和许多研究人员在内的国际组织一直在开展有关渔业可持续发展的主题，特别是在渔业资源可持续利用领域。然而，在这一领域中，最重要和紧迫的主题之一是如何评价可持续水平，如何确定依据，标准和评价方法以及如何建立评价框架，从而使渔业可持续系统成为可能。反映在各个方面。认为SUFR是一个包含经济连续性，资源连续性和社会连续性的复杂系统，其中资源连续性是最重要的。本文主要提出了渔业资源可持续利用综合评价的一般方法。这种方式比传统的生物经济模式具有优势，因为它充分反映了渔业资源的可持续利用系统。本文以1978-1990年东海渔业资源为例。结果表明，东中国海渔业资源可持续利用水平下降，1983年至1986年的数值处于较低水平，1987年以后的数值缓慢上升。结果还表明，1978年的渔业资源已被过度捕捞，处于轻度预警水平。在1983年和1990年期间，渔业资源继续减少，根本处于较高预警水平。本文基于1991年至1999年东海经校正的统计数据，采用动态预警模型对渔业资源预警进行了分析。结果还表明，1991年至1998年的渔业资源均处于较高预警水平，而1999年处于最高预警水平。

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