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首页> 外文会议>2011 8th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management >Study on impacts of population, consumption and technology on carbon emission in China (1990–2008) based on STIRPAT model
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Study on impacts of population, consumption and technology on carbon emission in China (1990–2008) based on STIRPAT model

机译：基于STIRPAT模型的人口，消费和技术对中国碳排放的影响（1990-2008）

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摘要

Based on extended STIRPAT model, this paper econometrically investigates the impacts on carbon emissions from population, consumption and technology in China by using the principal components regressive analysis method. Using urbanization rate as an index of the population structure, the empirical results of China' s carbon emission from 1990 to 2008 demonstrate that the influence on carbon emission produced by population structure change is higher than that brought by population scale growth at the present stage, and the technology factor plays limited role on carbon emission reduction. This is because although China has gained a certain achievement in the aspect of technology progress regarding the reduction of the intensity of carbon emission as the symbol, its carbon emission has not reached the peak owing to the restriction of the three inverted U shape curves rule in the carbon emissions process. The increase of Per capita annual consumption also brings the positive effect on the rise of carbon emission. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions about emission-reduction, including : during the urbanization process, it should be paid attention to optimizing population structure & continuing to implement family planning policy, further enlarging the technology innovation in order to reduce carbon emissions intensity for goal-directed and cultivating sustainable consumption pattern.
机译：本文在扩展STIRPAT模型的基础上，运用主成分回归分析方法，对中国人口，消费和技术对碳排放的影响进行了计量研究。以城市化率作为人口结构的指标，1990-2008年中国碳排放的实证结果表明，现阶段人口结构变化对碳排放的影响要大于人口规模增长带来的影响。技术因素在碳减排中的作用有限。这是因为尽管中国在以减少碳排放强度为标志的技术进步方面取得了一定的成就，但由于受到三个倒U形曲线规则的限制，中国的碳排放尚未达到峰值。碳排放过程。人均年消费量的增加也对碳排放量的增加产生了积极的影响。最后，本文提出了一些减少排放的建议，包括：在城市化过程中，应注意优化人口结构，继续执行计划生育政策，进一步加大技术创新力度，以减少碳排放强度。以目标为导向，培育可持续消费模式。

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