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Energy and Environmental Scenario Analysis for Residential Sector Based on LEAP

机译：基于LEAP的住宅部门能源与环境情景分析

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To assess the energy demand and environment effect on residential sector, a bottom-up LEAP Henan model was developed to simulate three different scenarios from 2005 to 2030. In this paper, by taking Henan Province as an example, the simulation results showed that the implementation of policies and technologies to promote the degree of intensity of energy demand and utilization had a great impact on the energy consumption structure, and the greatest difference in energy demand in three different scenarios reached 9.8Mtce, and the CO2 emission produced by direct energy consumption from end users in three different scenarios had a downward trend. Rapid consumption of residential energy increases the deficiency of energy supply, and brings serious environmental problems, especially climate change caused by CO2 emission that has become the focus of public attention. In the field of residential energy in China, there are some residential energy analysis and their environmental impact assessments without clear and quantifiable targets, especially provincial residential energy analysis and their environmental impact assessments. Due to lack of support of detailed data, technical and economic analysis, the operability of analysis is poor and the results of the analysis are not ideal. Lack of analytical methods has a serious influence on proper formulation and implementation of energy development policies. LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) can construct the characteristics of data structure according to the availability of data'1' and the analytical purpose and type, because of its operating flexibility and ease to use in the analysis and computation, as well as flexible data structure. Therefore, it is widely used in the fields of energy demand forecasting'21"'41, impact of energy on the environment'^1"'61, industrial development planning'71, climate change'8', traffic'91"'"1 and so on. In this paper, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system software was applied to build residential energy and environment model, compare and analyze environmental impact and energy demand of residents in Henan in different scenarios from 2005 to 2030, on the condition that an increased residential energy demand was ensured. It was important to analyze the policy of residential energy and explore the channels and solutions of energysaving, laying a foundation for formulation of energy development policy and energy warning in Henan province.
机译：为了评估能源需求和环境对住宅部门的影响，开发了一种自下而上的LEAP河南模型，以模拟2005年至2030年的三种不同情景。促进能源需求和利用强度程度的政策和技术的发展对能源消费结构产生了重大影响，三种情况下能源需求的最大差异达到9.8Mtce，而直接能源消耗产生的CO2排放则来自三种不同情况下的最终用户均呈下降趋势。住宅能源的快速消耗加剧了能源供应的不足，并带来了严重的环境问题，特别是由二氧化碳排放引起的气候变化，这已成为公众关注的焦点。在中国的住宅能源领域，有些住宅能源分析及其环境影响评估没有明确和可量化的目标，尤其是省级住宅能源分析及其环境影响评估。由于缺乏详细数据，技术和经济分析的支持，分析的可操作性较差，分析结果也不理想。缺乏分析方法会对能源发展政策的正确制定和实施产生严重影响。 LEAP（远程能源替代计划系统）具有操作灵活性并且易于在分析和计算中使用，因此可以根据数据“ 1”的可用性以及分析目的和类型来构造数据结构的特征。作为灵活的数据结构。因此，它广泛应用于能源需求预测'21''41，能源对环境的影响'^ 1''61，工业发展计划'71，气候变化'8'，交通'91”'”等领域。 1，依此类推。本文利用远程能源替代计划系统软件建立居民能源与环境模型，比较和分析了2005-2030年河南居民在不同情景下对环境的影响及居民的能源需求。保证了能源需求。对住宅能源政策进行分析，探索节能的途径和解决方案，为制定河南省能源发展政策和能源预警奠定基础，具有重要意义。

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