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首页> 外文会议>Association of State Dam Safety Officials annual conference >SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENTS USING THE COMMON RISK MODEL FOR DAMS (CRM-D): PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYSIS INCORPORATING THREAT MODELING
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SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENTS USING THE COMMON RISK MODEL FOR DAMS (CRM-D): PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYSIS INCORPORATING THREAT MODELING

机译：使用DAMS的通用风险模型（CRM-D）进行安全风险评估：包含威胁模型的投资组合风险分析

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摘要

The Common Risk Model for Dams (CRM-D) is a consistent, mathematically rigorous, and easy to implement method for security risk assessment of dams, navigation locks, hydropower projects, and similar infrastructures. This methodology, whose implementation represents collaborative efforts between the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, provides a systematic approach for evaluating and comparing security risks across a large portfolio. Generic security configurations are used to characterize the security posture of critical components within a facility, and the corresponding vulnerability estimates can be determined for a number of potential attack vectors. By combining the resulting vulnerability - expressed as the probability of successful attack - with the corresponding consequence estimates, a conditional risk value for each attack scenario may be calculated. The CRM-D also incorporates a decision model to estimate the relative probability of potential attack scenarios for a given portfolio. The decision model, which is based on analysis techniques commonly applied in market research applications, constitutes a unique contribution to the methods of eliciting expert uncertainty and aggregating expert opinions. The CRM-D can effectively quantify the benefits of implementing a particular risk mitigation strategy and, consequently, enable return-on-investment analyses for multiple mitigation alternatives across a large portfolio. This paper describes the CRM-D methodology and its current implementation efforts.
机译：大坝共同风险模型（CRM-D）是一致，数学严格且易于实施的大坝，航行闸，水电项目和类似基础设施安全风险评估的方法。这种方法的实施代表了美国陆军工程兵团与美国国土安全部之间的共同努力，它为评估和比较大型项目组合中的安全风险提供了一种系统的方法。通用安全配置用于表征设施内关键组件的安全状态，并且可以为许多潜在的攻击媒介确定相应的漏洞估计。通过将所得的脆弱性（表示为成功攻击的概率）与相应的后果估计值相结合，可以计算出每种攻击情形的条件风险值。 CRM-D还合并了一个决策模型，以估计给定投资组合的潜在攻击场景的相对概率。决策模型基于市场研究应用中常用的分析技术，对引发专家不确定性和汇总专家意见的方法做出了独特的贡献。 CRM-D可以有效地量化实施特定风险缓解策略的收益，因此，可以对大型投资组合中的多种缓解方案进行投资回报分析。本文介绍了CRM-D方法及其当前的实施工作。

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