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Learning without Recall in Directed Circles and Rooted Trees

机译:没有考虑在指示的圆圈和植根树中的学习

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This work investigates the case of a network of agents that attempt to learn some unknown state of the world amongst the finitely many possibilities. At each time step, agents all receive random, independently distributed private signals whose distributions are dependent on the unknown state of the world. However, it may be the case that some or any of the agents cannot distinguish between two or more of the possible states based only on their private observations, as when several states result in the same distribution of the private signals. In our model, the agents form some initial belief (probability distribution) about the unknown state and then refine their beliefs in accordance with their private observations, as well as the beliefs of their neighbors. An agent learns the unknown state when her belief converges to a point mass that is concentrated at the true state. A rational agent would use the Bayes' rule to incorporate her neighbors' beliefs and own private signals over time. While such repeated applications of the Bayes' rule in networks can become computationally intractable; in this paper, we show that in the canonical cases of directed star, circle or path networks and their combinations, one can derive a class of memoryless update rules that replicate that of a single Bayesian agent but replace the self beliefs with the beliefs of the neighbors. This way, one can realize an exponentially fast rate of learning similar to the case of Bayesian (fully rational) agents. The proposed rules are a special case of the Learning without Recall approach that we develop in a companion paper, and it has the advantage that while preserving essential features of the Bayesian inference, they are made tractable. In particular, the agents can rely on the observational abilities of their neighbors and their neighbors' neighbors etc. to learn the unknown state; even though they themselves cannot distinguish the truth.
机译:这项工作的调查试图了解世界上的一些未知状态之中的有限多的可能性代理网络的情况下。在每个时间步,代理所有收到随机的,独立分布的私人信号,其分布是依赖于世界的未知状态。但是,它可能是一些或任何药剂不能两个或两个以上仅基于他们的私人意见可能的状态,区分当几个州造成私人信号的分布相同的情况。在我们的模型中,代理商形成对未知状态的一些最初的信念(概率分布),然后完善自己的信念依照他们的私人意见,以及他们的邻居的信念。代理获悉未知状态时,她的信念,收敛到被集中在真实状态下的点质量。一个理性的代理人将使用贝叶斯法则纳入她的邻居随着时间的信仰和自己的私人信号。虽然贝叶斯网络中的规则如此反复应用可以成为难以计算的;在本文中,我们表明,在针对明星,圆或路径网络及其组合的规范的情况下,就可以得出一类的记忆更新规则,复制单个贝叶斯剂,但随着信仰取代自我信念邻居。通过这种方式,可以实现学习类似于贝叶斯(完全合理的)代理人的情况下的指数快的速度。拟议的规则是学而不召回的做法,我们在配套文件制定的一个特例,它的优点是同时保留贝叶斯推理的本质特征,它们是由驯服。特别是,代理商可以依靠他们的邻居的观察能力和邻居的邻居等学习未知状态;尽管他们自己不能辨别真相。

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