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Urban-scale distributed power generation — Forecast methods for the estimation of electricity exchange profiles for grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems

机译:城市规模的分布式发电—并网太阳能光伏(PV)系统的电力交换曲线估计的预测方法

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Photovoltaic powered distributed generation (PV-DG) is increasingly being embedded into electricity distribution networks worldwide with fast penetration rates. Among various elements which can limit a substantial dissemination of the PV-DG, one is the paucity of reliable forecasting methods for estimating production and exchange profiles of non-programmable sources with particular reference to solar photovoltaic generators. In facts, forecasting PV power allows to optimize user's energy management, for example scheduling electric loads and operating energy storages. Thus, the presented research work has been focused on the development of a methodology aimed at forecasting the electricity exchange of grid-connected PV systems up to 48 hours ahead. Different forecast techniques have been analyzed and, subsequently, a methodology based on physical models is proposed and tested on a real case study, represented by a residential nearly zero energy building (NZEB) equipped with an electric ground source heat pump (GSHP) and demand-side management solutions.
机译:光伏分布式发电(PV-DG)越来越多地以快速的渗透率被嵌入全球的配电网络中。在可能限制PV-DG大量传播的各种因素中,一种是缺乏可靠的预测方法来估计非可编程光源的生产和交换状况,尤其是针对太阳能光伏发电机。实际上,预测PV功率可以优化用户的能源管理,例如安排电负载和操作储能。因此,目前的研究工作一直集中在一种方法的开发上,该方法旨在预测与电网连接的光伏系统提前48小时的电力交换。分析了不同的预测技术,随后提出了基于物理模型的方法,并在实际案例研究中进行了测试,以配备电地源热泵(GSHP)和需求的住宅近零能耗建筑(NZEB)为代表方面的管理解决方案。

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