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#x0022;DGM-AMSAA#x0022; Model of reliability growth based on the small sample

机译:基于小样本的“ DGM-AMSAA”可靠性增长模型

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It is of great significance to the development of the reliability assessment of small-sample weapon equipment. According to the United States Army Materiel Systems Analysis Center (AMSAA) growth model, in this paper, we offer the DGM-AMSAA model of reliability growth for the poor information characteristics of weapon equipment. Firstly, we determine the reliability of the system is increased according to the Laplace test. Then, using the grey DGM (1,1) model to forecast to get the parameter estimation, which is based on DGM-AMSAA model. Finally, based on the Bayes theory, we use the prediction information obtained from the test data of N products as the prior information of a n+1 batch products, therefore, obtains the prior distribution. Combined with a small amount of field test data, we analyses the reliability of the system. A numerical example is given to verify the effectiveness of this method, and provides a new method for system reliability growth evaluation for small sample and poor information.
机译:这对小样本武器装备可靠性评估的发展具有重要意义。根据美国陆军装备系统分析中心(AMSAA)的增长模型,本文针对武器装备的不良信息特征,提供了可靠性增长的DGM-AMSAA模型。首先,根据拉普拉斯测试,我们确定系统的可靠性得到了提高。然后,使用基于DGM-AMSAA模型的灰色DGM(1,1)模型进行预测以获得参数估计。最后,基于贝叶斯理论,我们将从N个产品的测试数据中获得的预测信息用作n + 1个批次产品的先验信息,从而获得先验分布。结合少量的现场测试数据,我们分析了系统的可靠性。数值算例验证了该方法的有效性,为小样本和不良信息的系统可靠性增长评估提供了一种新方法。

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