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Med-long term system structure forecasting of power consumption based on grey derived model

机译：基于灰色衍生模型的电力中长期系统结构预测

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摘要

Med-long term load forecasting is the basis of power system planning. According to the characteristics and changing rules of the different types of electricity load and different demand side management strategies on them, electricity load structure forecasting for the research on power development and planning is very necessary. Based on the grey theory, this paper proposes a med-long term load structure forecasting model in which the system state equations and grey dynamic model group about various types of electricity load are established, in terms of the system dominant factors and associated factors determined by the grey correlative degree analysis method, and are solved to realize the med-long term structure forecasting of power consumption by means of the GM (1, N, x (0)) model derived from GM (1, N) model. The power consumption of actual grid is predicted in medium and long term in a case study utilizing the proposed model. The prediction results are analyzed and compared with the observed values of power consumption, which verifies the validity and practicality of the established med-long term load forecasting model.
机译：中长期负荷预测是电力系统规划的基础。根据不同用电类型的特点和变化规律以及对它们的不同需求侧管理策略，对电力开发和规划研究的用电结构预测是非常必要的。本文基于灰色理论，提出了一种中长期负荷结构预测模型，建立了关于电力负荷类型的系统状态方程和灰色动态模型组，并根据系统主导因素和相关因素确定了相关因素。灰色关联度分析法，并通过基于GM（1，N，x （0））模型实现了中长期结构功耗预测，N）模型。在使用该模型的案例研究中，可以预测中长期的实际电网功耗。通过对预测结果进行分析，并与实测功率值进行比较，验证了所建立的中长期负荷预测模型的有效性和实用性。

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