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Stochastic total cost of ownership forecasting for innovative urban transport systems

机译：创新型城市交通系统的随机总拥有成本预测

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摘要

This paper presents a financial forecasting method for innovative urban transport systems. The Monte Carlo simulation accounts for future uncertainties such as technology-related and market risks. The method is based on a total cost of ownership (TCO) approach and exemplary results are shown for the introduction of an innovative electric bus system in the city of Berlin. The input parameters are stochastically modeled including future adverse events as well as favorable scenarios for the years 2013, 2020 and 2030. In contrast to determined future scenarios which provide only discrete results, the probability distribution of future system TCO is assessed. The simulation reveals when alternative technologies reach the TCO break-even. The results can be used to derive a technology roadmap. Furthermore, using a suitable visualization the decision-making process for complex investments typical for technology changes (e. g. replacement of a complete bus fleet) is supported.
机译：本文提出了一种创新的城市交通系统的财务预测方法。蒙特卡洛模拟说明了未来的不确定性，例如与技术有关的风险和市场风险。该方法基于总拥有成本（TCO）方法，并显示了在柏林市引入创新型电动公交系统的示例性结果。对输入参数进行随机建模，包括未来不良事件以及2013、2020和2030年的有利情景。与确定的仅提供离散结果的未来情景形成对照，评估了未来系统TCO的概率分布。仿真揭示了替代技术何时达到TCO收支平衡。结果可用于得出技术路线图。此外，使用适当的可视化，支持针对技术改变典型的复杂投资的决策过程（例如，更换整个公交车队）。

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