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Assessing the Impact of A Carbon Tax Policy on Commercial Aviation and National Airspace System Performance

机译:评估碳税政策对民航和国家空域系统绩效的影响

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This paper examines the effect of a hypothetical carbon tax on commercial aviation operations in the United States through a multi-tiered simulation. First, a tax similar to Australia's current carbon price system is imposed and the effect on airline costs is estimated. Based on these results, econometric models of air carrier responses are used to estimate the impact on seat supply, flight frequency, and the types of aircraft flown. Then, a system-wide model of the National Airspace System analyzes the resulting schedules and determines pre- and post-tax flight operational performances, specifically average delay. Finally, a model that measures fuel burn and emissions based on flight trajectories is used to estimate the change in environmental impact from schedule adjustments made by the airlines in response to the carbon tax. Based on a range of plausible tax rates, the results show an average CO_2 reduction of between 0.52% and 0.94% over the two quarters modeled in this paper.
机译:本文通过多层模拟研究了假设性碳税对美国商业航空运营的影响。首先,征收类似于澳大利亚当前碳价格体系的税,并估算其对航空公司成本的影响。根据这些结果,可以使用航空承运人响应的计量经济学模型来估计对座位供应,飞行频率和飞行飞机类型的影响。然后,国家空域系统的全系统模型分析得出的时间表,并确定税前和税后飞行的运行性能,特别是平均延误。最后,基于航班轨迹测量燃料燃烧和排放的模型用于估算航空公司根据碳税做出的航班时刻表调整对环境的影响。根据一系列合理的税率,结果显示,在本文建模的两个季度中,平均CO_2减少量在0.52%至0.94%之间。

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