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首页> 外文会议>International conference on vulnerability and risk analysis and management;International symposium on uncertainty, modeling and analysis >Climate-related extreme events with high resolution regional simulations: assessing the effects of climate change scenarios in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
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Climate-related extreme events with high resolution regional simulations: assessing the effects of climate change scenarios in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

机译：高分辨率区域模拟与气候有关的极端事件：评估布基纳法索瓦加杜古气候变化情景的影响

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摘要

We have applied a Bayesian framework for the analysis and testing of possible non-stationarities in extreme meteorological events in an area around Ouagadougou, Burkina faso. Considering the results obtained for the historical period (1950-2005), it can be seen that for a given exceedance probability, the intensities of extreme temperature and extreme consecutive dry days ECDD data are positively correlated. The higher values of extreme temperature and ECDD are identified at the Eastern part of the domain. This result suggests that those areas can be more likely exposed to desertification processes. Some of these areas are also coincident with areas in which extreme rainfall events may occur, and this combination can be a factor amplifying the possibility of flood events. Looking at the effects of two climate change scenarios considered (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), different patterns were found for the three variables analyzed: whereas the ECDD data indicate that the stationary model is the one that dominates most of the solutions, the extreme temperature and extreme precipitation show remarkable trend in both scenarios. In this paper, analyses of the spatial distribution of the extreme events and the temporal trends observed when considering scenarios of climate change is performed.
机译：我们已应用贝叶斯框架对布基纳法索瓦加杜古附近地区极端气象事件中可能的非平稳性进行分析和测试。考虑到历史时期（1950-2005年）获得的结果，可以看出，对于给定的超出概率，极端温度和极端连续干旱日ECDD数据的强度呈正相关。在该区域的东部确定了较高的极端温度和ECDD值。这一结果表明，这些地区更可能遭受荒漠化进程的影响。这些区域中的某些区域也可能与可能发生极端降雨事件的区域重合，并且这种结合可能是扩大洪水事件可能性的因素。考察所考虑的两种气候变化情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）的影响，发现所分析的三个变量具有不同的模式：而ECDD数据表明，平稳模型是支配大多数解决方案的模型，在两种情况下，极端温度和极端降水都显示出明显的趋势。在本文中，分析了考虑气候变化情景时观察到的极端事件的空间分布和时间趋势。

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