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The Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Price Fluctuations: Evidence from China's Big-to-Medium Sized Cities

机译:货币政策对房价波动的影响:来自中国大中型城市的证据

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It is important for macro policy makers to make clear what monetary policy instruments are significant to control housing prices. According to China's 35 big-to-medium sized cities' average house price index spans from 2000Q1 to 2012Q3, this paper applies log-linear regression and dummy variable analysis to study the impact of money supply, mortgage interest rate, credit and GDP on housing prices. Empirical analysis shows that credit is the most important factor to affect housing prices, GDP has a positive effect, while mortgage interest rate do not have significant effect on house prices. Though money supply does not have long run positive effect, it can affect house price positively in the short run. Hence the best way to control China's house price is to control the scale of credit.
机译:对于宏观政策制定者来说,重要的是要弄清楚哪些货币政策工具对于控制房价是重要的。根据中国35个大中城市2000年第一季度至2012年第三季度的平均房价指数,本文采用对数线性回归和虚拟变量分析研究货币供应,抵押贷款利率,信贷和GDP对住房的影响。价格。实证分析表明,信贷是影响房价的最重要因素,GDP具有积极作用,而抵押贷款利率对房价没有显着影响。尽管货币供应不会产生长期的积极影响,但短期内可能对房价产生积极影响。因此,控制中国房价的最佳方法是控制信贷规模。

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