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Risk Analysis in the Subcontractor Selection Process for International Construction Projects

机译:国际建设项目分包商选择过程中的风险分析

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Subcontracting is a very common practice in the construction industry. Subcontractors perform the actual production work in most of the construction projects. Selection of subcontractors for the work packages is generally made based on a deterministic manner. However, a real-life construction project is full of risks and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to account and incorporate risks into the subcontractor selection problem by performing Monte-Carlo simulation method in order to make better decisions under uncertainty. This study is mainly based on the findings of a previous study. In the previous study, the selection of subcontractors for all work packages in the studied real-life construction project was made using genetic algorithm technique considering time, cost, and quality performances, and six different optimal subcontractor combinations and their related three deterministic project performances were identified. In this study, risk analysis of these subcontractor combinations is performed and the probabilistic distributions of time, cost, and quality performances are obtained. The probabilistic solutions of optimal subcontractor combinations are used to make a decision in a more realistic way.
机译:分包是建筑业非常普遍的做法。分包商在大多数建设项目中执行实际的生产工作。通常基于确定性方式来选择工作包的分包商。但是,现实生活中的建设项目充满风险和不确定性。这项研究的目的是通过执行蒙特卡洛模拟方法来考虑风险并将风险纳入分包商选择问题中,以便在不确定性下做出更好的决策。这项研究主要基于先前研究的发现。在先前的研究中,考虑到时间,成本和质量表现,使用遗传算法技术选择了所研究的实际施工项目中所有工作包的分包商,并选择了六个不同的最佳分包商组合及其相关的三个确定性项目绩效。确定。在这项研究中,对这些分包商组合进行了风险分析,并获得了时间,成本和质量绩效的概率分布。最佳分包商组合的概率解决方案用于以更现实的方式做出决策。

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