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Research on the Impact of the Adjustment of Chinese Family Planning Policy on the Size and Structure of Population Based on a Simulation Model

机译：基于模拟模型的中国计划生育政策调整对人口规模和结构的影响研究

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In the past two years, the constantly adjustment for family planning policy by Chinese government is bound to have a great impact on population scale, aging process of the Chinese society, education, labor force, employment and endowment. Adopting C++ language, this paper built a population predicting simulation model using time-lapse method to predict the population and the trend of some related variables under different family planning policies. The model simulated four situations, including polices of one-child, two-child for both one-child parents, selective two-child and universal two-child. Then, the change of size and structure of population as well as the impact on aging process of the Chinese society, education, labor force and employment under different family planning policies are analyzed. From the simulation results, releasing universal two-child policy in the present could keep an optimized population structure while such measures could no longer be valid if this policy is released after 2030 since the population structure would enter the aging status by then.
机译：在过去的两年中，中国政府对计划生育政策的不断调整必将对人口规模，中国社会的老龄化进程，教育，劳动力，就业和have赋产生重大影响。本文采用C ++语言，建立了人口时延模拟模型，采用时移法对不同计划生育政策下人口及一些相关变量的趋势进行了预测。该模型模拟了四种情况，包括一个孩子的政策，一个孩子父母的两个孩子，选择性的两个孩子和普遍的两个孩子。然后，分析了不同计划生育政策下人口规模和结构的变化，以及对中国社会老龄化进程，教育，劳动力和就业的影响。从模拟结果来看，目前释放普遍的二胎政策可以保持最佳的人口结构，而如果该政策在2030年后发布，则这些措施将不再有效，因为届时人口结构将进入老龄化状态。

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