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首页> 外文会议>IEEE Biennial Congress of Argentina >Socio-technical energy transitions: Modelling innovation diffusion through markets with heterogeneous boundedly rational agents
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Socio-technical energy transitions: Modelling innovation diffusion through markets with heterogeneous boundedly rational agents

机译：社会技术能源转型：使用种类繁多的有限理性主体为市场中的创新扩散建模

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In recent years, thanks to new computational techniques like Agent-Based Models (ABM), modelling tools for socio-technical transitions to sustainable energy use have become more sophisticated than top-down techno-economic energy models (TEEMs) that are normally used to inform policy worldwide. TEEMs tend to ignore complex market structures, socio-political agents and dynamics, or co-evolutionary features of society and technology that are important for understanding how actors adopt new technologies during socio-technical energy transitions (STETs). However, even thought that several aspects of energy transitions like diffusion, demand, and techno-economic-drivenness are already incorporated in ABM of STETs, in our view, these existing models need to include robust and tested market simulation and decision making algorithms for modelling economic interactions among agents that are boundedly rational and heterogeneous. Thus, our aim is to present an ABM framework, merging two application programming interfaces (API), which can leverage the modelling of STETs by allowing computational agents embedded in social networks and dynamic market structures while adoption of new technologies occur. These APIs are: LARA (Lightweight Architecture for Boundedly Rational Agents) and JASA (Java Auction Simulator API). In our view, this integration can allow the robust and novel simulation of innovation diffusion embedded in markets. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, we present a simple example in which agents decide whether to adopt electrical mobility or not. In doing so, we embed the agents inside a market structure to allow their interaction with firms selling conventional and electrical cars. Among other results, the model output shows a typical s-shape curve diffusion pattern like the ones produced in Bass-Models. Directions for further research are discussed.
机译：近年来，由于采用了新的计算技术，例如基于代理的模型（ABM），用于从社会技术过渡到可持续能源使用的建模工具已经比通常用于自上而下的自上而下的技术经济能源模型（TEEM）更加复杂。告知全球政策。 TEEM倾向于忽略复杂的市场结构，社会政治因素和动力，或社会与技术的共同进化特征，这对于理解参与者在社会技术能源转型（STET）中如何采用新技术非常重要。但是，即使认为能源转型的几个方面（如扩散，需求和技术经济驱动力）已纳入STET的ABM中，我们认为，这些现有模型需要包括经过验证的稳健的市场模拟和建模决策算法有限理性和异质性的主体之间的经济互动。因此，我们的目标是提出一个合并了两个应用程序编程接口（API）的ABM框架，该框架可以通过允许在社会网络和动态市场结构中嵌入计算代理，同时采用新技术，从而利用STET的建模。这些API是：LARA（有限理性代理的轻量级体系结构）和JASA（Java Auction Simulator API）。我们认为，这种整合可以对嵌入市场的创新扩散进行鲁棒而新颖的模拟。为了演示此方法的可行性，我们提供一个简单的示例，其中代理决定是否采用电动移动性。为此，我们将代理商嵌入市场结构中，以允许代理商与销售常规和电动汽车的公司进行互动。除其他结果外，模型输出还显示了典型的s形曲线扩散模式，就像在Bass-Models中产生的那样。讨论了进一步研究的方向。

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