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Estimating the Impact of Water-Supply Investment Based on CGE Model -- As a Case of Heilongjiang Province

机译：基于CGE模型的供水投资影响力估算-以黑龙江省为例

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The water-supply investment not only further strengthen conservancy facilities, but also effectively drive the development of related industries, increase social employment, contributing to the economy growth. CGE model used to evaluate the efficient of investment and its influence on water security and the national economy. The papers construct the Heilongjiang CGE model based on input-output table in 2010, by setting nine investment programs, quantitative analyze socio-economic impact of water-supply investment. The results illustrate that(1) water sector investments can boost national economic development, GDP growth of 0.03% under scenario 1, (2) the total output of the various departments receive the impact, the rising of output from better to less was: high water industry, high water tertiary industry, general water tertiary industry and construction, the decline of output was high water industry.(3) To guarantee water security, the growth rate of water-supply investment should be greater than 60%. High water industry have the fastest growing on water consumption followed by high water tertiary industry, general water tertiary industry and the construction industry, water consumption of general water industrial is falling. Sewage from high water industry have the fastest growing, followed by high water tertiary industry, general water tertiary industry and construction industry, sewage from general water industrial decline. (3)The suitable growth scale investment of Water-supply is from 60% to 70%.
机译：供水投资不仅进一步加强了水利设施，而且有效地带动了相关产业的发展，增加了社会就业，为经济增长做出了贡献。 CGE模型用于评估投资效率及其对水安全和国民经济的影响。通过设置9项投资方案，基于投入产出表构建黑龙江省CGE模型，定量分析了供水投资的社会经济影响。结果表明：（1）水务部门的投资可以促进国民经济发展，情景1下的GDP增长0.03％，（2）各部门的总产出受到了影响，产出从好转为少：水产业，高水第三产业，一般水第三产业和建筑业的产出下降是高水产业。（3）为了保证水的安全，供水投资的增长率应大于60％。高水行业的用水量增长最快，其次是高水第三产业，普通水第三产业和建筑业，普通水工业的用水量正在下降。高水产业的污水增长最快，其次是高水第三产业，一般水第三产业和建筑业，一般水产业的污水下降。 （3）供水的适宜增长规模投资为60％至70％。

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