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Impact of wind and solar variability on the resource adequacy for North American bulk power system

机译：风和太阳多变性对北美大功率电力系统资源充足性的影响

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The goal of bulk power system planning is to ensure that sufficient energy resources and electric transmission infrastructure are installed to serve demand. System planners use forecasts of future demand along with existing and planned resources to determine, on a probabilistic basis, if those resources will be sufficient in meeting reliability targets. Several identified trends within North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Assessment Areas for the North American Bulk Power System (BPS) are showing tightening Reserve Margins year-to-year from previous assessments. These trends, combined with the ongoing changes to future generation portfolios and load conditions, create uncertainties and potential reliability risks to the BPS. This paper addresses the uncertain performance of Variable Energy Resources (VER), such as wind and solar, and provides stochastic models that have been incorporated into the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) interconnected system. Wind and solar capacity factors, using a time series method, are presented as well as a Monte Carlo simulation that has been carried out to show the impact of uncertain parameters affecting Reserve Margin calculations. Lastly, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis has been performed; these results are presented by parameter significance.
机译：大容量电力系统规划的目标是确保安装足够的能源和电力传输基础设施来满足需求。系统规划人员使用对未来需求的预测以及现有和计划中的资源，以概率为基础确定这些资源是否足以满足可靠性目标。在北美大功率电力系统（BPS）的北美电力可靠性公司（NERC）评估区域内，已确定的几种趋势显示，与之前的评估相比，储备金保证金逐年收紧。这些趋势，再加上对下一代产品组合和负载条件的不断变化，给BPS带来了不确定性和潜在的可靠性风险。本文针对风能和太阳能等可变能源（VER）的不确定性能，并提供了已纳入德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会（ERCOT）互连系统的随机模型。提出了使用时间序列方法的风能和太阳能容量因子，以及进行了蒙特卡洛模拟，以显示不确定参数对储量保证金计算的影响。最后，进行了概率敏感性分析。这些结果由参数重要性表示。

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