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The construction and application of expectations index on monetary policy

机译：货币政策预期指标的建立与应用

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Given the complexity of macro-economic situation, in the decision-making of monetary policy, it is vital to first grasp and then effectively manage and guide the public expectations. However, expectation is an index hard to measure. With the emergence of big data application, measuring expectations through constructing Internet public opinion index has become an important research direction. According to the characteristics of monetary policy expectations, this paper determines the relevant key words, conducts research on online public opinions by mining and crawling the netnews and search data, and construct the expectations index on monetary policy. The practicability of the expectations index is then verified by measuring its correlation with the macroeconomic variables. The result indicates that the index can indeed represent the public expectations, which means it can be applied to analyze the pattern of public expectations on the monetary policy. Apart from that, the fact that it changes ahead of the price variable can serve as the basis for farsighted decisions.
机译：鉴于宏观经济形势的复杂性，在货币政策的决策中，首先掌握，然后有效地管理和指导公众期望至关重要。然而，期望是难以衡量的指数。随着大数据申请的出现，通过构建互联网公众舆论指数来衡量期望已成为重要的研究方向。根据货币政策预期的特点，本文确定了相关关键词，通过挖掘和爬行净网络和搜查数据对在线公众意见进行研究，并构建货币政策的预期指标。然后通过测量与宏观经济变量的相关性来验证期望指数的可行性。结果表明，该指数确实可以代表公众期望，这意味着它可以应用于分析货币政策的公众预期模式。除此之外，它可能发生在价格变量前方的事实可以作为远视决策的基础。

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