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Research on Affordable Apartment Demand Forecasting Based on the Apartment Affordability: A Case Study of Tianjin Xiqing District

机译：基于公寓可承受性的可负担公寓需求预测研究-以天津西青区为例

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摘要

In recent years, China's commercial apartment price had raised rapidly, which lead to the urban residents' apartment problem became more and more serious. And the affordable apartment had become the main way to ease the living problem for low-income groups. Although the affordable apartment was vigorous expansion in China, from the overall look, the imbalance between supply and demand was still obviously. For balancing the demand and supply of affordable apartment, this paper establishes the demand forecasting model of affordable apartment which based on residents' apartment affordability. Compared with income level, apartment affordability can more reliable to forecast the demand. The empirical analysis is conducted by using the data of Tianjin Xiqing district on the basis of the questionnaire to forecast the affordable apartment demand in 2016. The result not only can show the feasibility of the model but also can show that compared with the grey model, the model in this paper is more suitable for forecasting the affordable apartment demand.
机译：近年来，中国的商品住宅价格迅速上涨，导致城市居民的公寓问题变得越来越严重。负担得起的公寓已成为缓解低收入群体生活问题的主要方法。尽管经济适用房在中国正在蓬勃发展，但从总体上看，供需之间的不平衡仍然很明显。为了平衡经济适用房的需求和供给，本文建立了基于居民住房承受能力的经济适用房需求预测模型。与收入水平相比，公寓的负担能力可以更可靠地预测需求。利用天津市西青区的数据，在问卷调查的基础上进行了实证分析，预测了2016年经济适用房需求。结果不仅可以证明该模型的可行性，而且可以证明与灰色模型相比，本文中的模型更适合于预测可负担公寓的需求。

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