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The Science Behind the Art of Forecasting Morning Temperature Inversions

机译：预测早晨温度反转的艺术背后的科学

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Worst case air pollution dispersion conditions in the atmospheric boundary layer usually involve times when temperature increases with height above the surface of the earth. This condition is referred to as a ground level "temperature inversion." During times of such inversions, mixing of the atmosphere is suppressed and contaminants released into the air tend to remain concentrated. Temperature inversion conditions typically form soon after sunset and last until a few hours after sunrise; although, conditions extending beyond 24 hours have occurred. Reliable forecasting of surface temperature inversions would benefit areas prone to strong and/or persistent inversions. With advanced notice of impending stagnant air conditions, government regulators, industry operators, and the public could be ready to mitigate concentrations and exposure to elevated pollution levels. Inversion forecasts are based on several factors, including National Weather Service (NWS) surface observation and synoptic-map products (historic, real-time, and prognostic) and upwind upper-air measurements, satellite and radar images, and seasonal consideration. Actual vertical conditions of the atmosphere are recorded from site-specific upper-air data obtained by NWS daily radiosonde launches that typically occur at 12-hour intervals. Radiosondes, which are balloon-borne instrument packages, transmit temperature, moisture, and wind data with increasing altitude. The data are critical to understanding the structure and mixing potential of the lowest layers of the atmosphere. This paper provides an explanation of surface-based temperature inversion formation and detection along with inversion statistics and an overview of the key resources and variables used to produce morning surface inversion forecasts in the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania area. Although the focus is on southwestern Pennsylvania, the forecasting approach can be applied to similar locations across the globe.
机译：最坏的情况是，大气边界层中的空气污染扩散条件通常涉及温度随地表高度的升高而升高的时间。该条件称为地面“温度反转”。在这种反转期间，抑制了大气的混合，并且释放到空气中的污染物倾向于保持浓缩。温度反转条件通常在日落后不久形成，持续到日出后几小时。尽管发生了超过24小时的情况。可靠的地表温度反演预报将有利于容易发生强反演和/或持续反演的地区。有了即将到来的停滞空气状况的提前通知，政府监管机构，行业运营商和公众可以随时准备减轻浓度和暴露于高污染水平。反演预报基于几个因素，包括国家气象局（NWS）的地面观测和天气图产品（历史，实时和预测）和迎风高空测量，卫星和雷达图像以及季节性考虑。大气的实际垂直条件是通过NWS每日探空仪发射获得的特定地点的高空数据记录的，该数据通常每隔12小时发生一次。探空仪是由气球携带的仪器套件，可随着海拔的升高传输温度，湿度和风的数据。数据对于了解大气最低层的结构和混合潜能至关重要。本文介绍了基于表面的温度反演的形成和探测，以及反演统计数据，并概述了用于在宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡地区产生早晨地面反演预报的关键资源和变量。尽管重点放在宾夕法尼亚州西南部，但预测方法可以应用于全球范围内的类似地点。

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